After a truly amazing 1st 2 games of 2019, where GAMBLOR got within 4 points of the winning margin on Thursday night (Predicted Rich by. Rich won by 33) and actually nailing the Friday night game EXACTLY (Geel by 7), the world came crashing down on GAMBLOR and other tipster alike as the upsets seemingly kept streaming in.
Fair to say Adelaide let us down most of all, but the Cats did ensure it wasn’t a complete strip out.
Round 2 can be a time to get some good #value as teams after 1 loss are written off and teams after 1 win are declared top 4 contenders.
I must admit I found this round particularly difficult to get my head around so not betting in big numbers this weekend. Very much wait and see with many teams.
Richmond vs Collingwood
Collingwood by 8 points (90-82)
I have this down as pretty much a 50/50 game and the markets tends to agree. Slight value with the Pies so going with them
Coll 1-39 @ $2.55
Sydney vs Adelaide
Adelaide by 17 points (82-65)
With the SCG surface being sub optimal and rain on the forecast, this looks to be a low scoring, dour affair and I think the Crows, after coming off a poor effort will be keen to get their hands dirty.
Adel 1-39 @ $2.65 seems a solid play.
Total Score UNDER 165.5 @ $1.91 also looks tempting but keep your eyes on the Sydney skies.
Essendon vs St Kilda
Essendon by 22 points
Not a game I have any interest in from any perspective whatsoever. If you want to take $1.25 about Essendon winning after watching them on the weekend, I have a Nigerian uncle with a wonderful investment opportunity for you. Harvery Norman. (No Interest)
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
Port by 11 points (97-86)
As good as Port were on the weekend, I just a have a feeling that this young Port side will be a yo-yo as the year goes on. They will beat top teams occasionally (i.e. last week) but will also drop games against sides that are less credentialed then them . Not saying they will lose here but it may be closer than many anticipate. But I recall people being bullish about Carl after R1 last year, when they put in a very similar effort last weekend, then got pumped at home by Gold Coast.
Port 1-39 @ $2.35 and hope the Blues can hang in there..
Geelong vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 3 points
Geelong beat Melbourne twice last year. Both games were thanks to kicks after the siren. This will be a ripper. Will be fascinating to see how the Dees will respond to last week. I reckon will they will bounce back and at the price look a touch of value in what I reckon is close to a 50/50 thing.
Melbourne at the line (+10.5) @ $1.91
Melb 1-39 @ $2.90
WCE vs GWS
WCE by 7 points
Another game I am massive trouble getting my head around. Giants looked awesome but what did they play against? And WCE after ¼ time were awful but all the teams that started preseason later seemed to need the run last weekend. Back at home surely they will be hard to toss but GAMBLOR is warming to this being the year for GWS. Not a game I’m keen to get involved in but GWS do look slight overs…
GWS at the line (+14.5) @ $1.91 if you must
North Melbourne vs Brisbane
North by 13 points
GAMBLOR outright refuses to drink the Brisbane cool-aide but that tactic has already cost me money and may cost me more as the year goes on. They looked awesome against the reigning premier on Saturday night and will be tough to toss at home. However in Melbourne is a different kettle of fish. North don’t exactly inspire confidence after their “effort” in Perth but have them slight favourites. So do the market so zero edge in this on.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
Bulldogs by 3 points (74-71)
The best value bet all weekend is the Western Bulldogs here. I would much rather it be at Docklands as opposed to the MCG but I suppose that is why we are getting $2.90 H2H. Reckon the Doggies
are on the rebound big time and the Hawks are a genuine middle of the road team. Certainly a play at the price. Rain also forecast so keen on the unders here too…
WB (18.5) @ $1.91
WB 1-39 @ $3.35
Total Score UNDER 179.5 @ $1.91
Gold Coast vs Fremantle
Freo by 20 points (92-72)
GC at the line (+28.5)
If GC are going to win a game this season (and I reckon they will) it will be early in the year. I was gutted to only see $4 for a GC win when the markets opened. Was hoping for $6.50 +. While I am not brave enough to tip the Suns, they will go a lot close than most think and the line bet here I reckon is a pretty solid one. Maybe Freo being the highest scoring team in the round has just messed with head!!!
Melb +10.5 @ $1.91
WB 1-39 @ $3.35
Coll / Adel / Pt Adel 1-39 / Melb +10.5 @ $17.25
Yours In Punting