GAMBLOR – GRAND FINAL

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

It would be fair to say that GAMBLOR did not see that performance coming from the mighty Pies. That first half was as a good a footy as we’ve seen from anyone in 2018.

Meanwhile,West Coast blew the Dees out of the water early and never looked back. So we have two seriously in form teams meeting here and there isn’t a great deal splitting them.

 

Let’s make some money…

 

West Coast vs Collingwood

MCG

Saturday 2.30pm EST

 

GAMBLOR has gone through some of the more favoured options for GF investments and how he will be going about it…

 

Norm Smith

 

As it looks to be a 50/50 game (or least in the opinion of GAMBLOR) this makes the choice of Norm a little tougher and invariably (but not always) it’s won by a player from the winning team.  I’m taking a stand against Steele Sidebottom having a big GF. Not because I don’t rate him as I have money from him on Brownlow night, but that Hutchings will place a super hard tag and while you can never completely nullify a player of his quality, I think it will be a tough gig for him to excel.

 

The key bets are I believe:

 

Josh Kennedy @ $10 – If he kicks 5+ and WCE win, it will be tough to give it to anyone else and with the greatest of respect to Goldsack, it could easily happen

Jack Darling @ $19 – Similar to Kennedy, a 4+ haul with 6-8 marks in a WCE would be the ultimate comeback from his 2015 flop and the Pies don’t really have a match up for him.

Eliot Yeo @ $8  – This guy Fyfe-like in his ability to grab a game by the horns and single handed turn the momentum of a game. Had a huge year and is in great form.

 

Adam Treloar @ $12 –With the attention going to SideBum, this guy could get seriously off the loose.  He has had 3 games now post injury and could be ready to explode. With Grundy to dominate in the ruck, Treloar and Co will get 1st use. Due a big one.

Jordan de Goey @ $12 – The obvious forward along with Cox that could go huge. Leaning towards de Goey as he has a few more strings to his bow. If he kicks 4+ is a Pies win, he has to be in the reckoning…

Brodie Grundy @ $9  – This will be my main play.  Has been in consistently amazing form . His worst game fro 2018 was the R17 game against WCE (after Nic Nat was hurt in the 2nd term) for revenge will sought. The media also notice him more than umpires which helps with this award. Huge show!

 

Rough Bets

 

Dom Sheed @ $41 – This guys have slipped under the radar BIG TIME in the last month. 31,31,27 & 27 touches in the last 4 games doing a great Gaff impersonation out a wing. Will likely go H2H with Phillips and if that is the case, both will rack up big numbers but Sheed more likely to stand out as he could end up potentially WCE leading possession getter on the ground while the Pies have a few high possession players hence Phillips won’t stand out quite as much.

Chris Mayne @ $101 – Okay, here me out here. Mayne is most likely to go to (a not 100% fit) McGovern so will therefore be playing deep forward. If he could nullify McGovern’s marking strength while kicking 2-3 goals himself in a low scoring game, I could see this happening…

 

Recommended bets

 

3 units on Grundy

2.5 units on Yeo

2 units on Treloar

0.1 unit on Mayne

 

 

First Goal Kicker

 

The Obvious

 

WCE:

 

Kennedy @ $7.5

Darling @ $10

Cripps @ $18 #Value

 

Collingwood:

 

De Goey @ $10

Cox @ $13

Stephenson @ $14

 

The Roughies

 

WCE

 

Daniel Venables @ $

This guy was un-tackle-able (if that is a word) on Saturday and looked the goods. Now of course he most likely won’t be able to back that up in the GF but he will start forward and at the price is worth a flutter

 

Collingwood

 

Chris Mayne @ $

The word on the street is that Mayne will start as a defensive forward on the not 100% fit J McGov. This means The Mayne Event will start deep forward and have as good a chance as anyone to kick an early major.

 

 

Recommended Bets

 

3 units on Darling

3 units on Josh Kennedy

3 units on De Goey

2 units on Cripps

1 unit on Venables

1 unit on Mayne

1 unit on Cox

 

 

First Possession

 

Okay, I reckon we can think this one through. Let’s start by assuming it will be by someone who starts in the centre square which narrows it down to 8 players. My best estimation as to who those 8 players will be as follows:

 

WCE

 

Lycett

Shuey

Yeo

Redden

 

Collingwood

 

Grundy

Pendlebury

Treloar

Adams

 

I am anticipating that Hutchings will go to Sidebottom on a wing hence won’t be inside the square.

 

Let’s also assume that Grundy will most likely win the hit out to some degree of advantage, hence I am leaning towards to Pies player.

 

Recommended Bet:

 

2 units on Adam Treloar

1 unit on Scott Pendlebury

 

 

Most Disposals

 

The stats indicate that throughout 2018 the Collingwood mids have got more the footy than their WCE conterparts and the bookies are on to this so there isn’t the #value in this markets as I’d have hoped.

 

Group A consists of

 

Sidebottom

Treloar

Adams

Pendlebury

Redden

Sheed

Yeo

Shuey

 

With the above being said, I’m only looking at the Pies in this market.

 

Pendles with finals of 17,24 & 25 touches is out for me.

Sidebottom is rightfully favourite but surely Hutchings gives him so serious attention (i.e like R17 when WCE beat the Pies at the MCG. Hutchings was in his face and Steele “only” got 18 possessions so at the price, I’m prepared to risk him.

 

Recommended Bets:

 

3 units on Adam Treloar @ $4.50

2 units on Taylor Adams @ $5

 

 

 

Prop Bets

 

Emergency umpire Razor Ray to enter the field of play during live play OVER 8.5 times for the match @ $1.90

 

Crosses to Eddie McGuire during the game OVER 7.5 @ $1.90

 

Crosses to Andrew Gaff in the WCE coaches box during the game OVER 3.5 @ $1.90

 

Crosses to Nic Nat on the WCE bench during the game OVER 3.5 @ $1.90

 

Mentions in the commentary that Mason Cox is American OVER 37.5 times @ $1.90

 

Mentions in the commentary that Mark Blicavs was a former steeplechaser OVER 0.5 times @ $11.00. I know Blicavs isn’t playing but it will happen if Luke Darcy calls…

 

Number of time Jack Darling flips up on to his feet, break dancing style OVER 0.5 times @ $1.90

 

Mentions of Steele Sidebottom as “Brownlow Medal runner-up Steele Sidebottom” OVER 2.5 @ $1.90

 

Centre bounces called back UNDER 2.5 @ $1.90. Backing the A grade umps to get it right.

 

Crosses to the parents of Mason Cox in the crowd  – OVER 3.5 @ $1.90

 

The colour of Eddie’s face with 60 seconds to go in the last quarter

 

  • Red/Pink – $1.55
  • Blue – $3.20
  • White / Pale – $3.75
  • Purple – $7

 

Eddie to have a rolled up Footy Record in his hand and slapping it against his though after every Pies goal – $2.50

 

WCE fans to boooo the AusKick kids at ½ time – YES @ $2.00

 

Prediction

 

WCE by 9 points (81-72)

 

Zero confidence though. Not a betting game. Completely different styles of play and whoever gets on top could really run away with it.

 

So that’s it for another GAMBLOR season. Without doing the maths I reckon we made sone good money again this year and I really appreciate the feedback on the articles. It seems quite a lot of people actually read it which is nice

 

Enjoy GF day and may the best team win (i.e. The one you’ve put money one)

 

Yours In Punting

 

GAMBLOR

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