GAMBLOR – BROWNLOW MEDAL 2018

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

 

Leader After 5 rounds

 

This is a 3 horse race with Fyfe. Mitchell & Dusty the only 3 possibles. Lets lok in depth at each of them:

 

Fyfe

 

Round 1 – Freo lose basdly to Port. 19 possies and a goal. WILL NOT POLL HERE

Round 2 – Freo beat Ess by 16 points. 29 possies and a goal. Was best on and will get 3 here

Round 3 – Freo beat the Suns handily. 38 possies. BEST ON BY A MILE. LOCK IN 3 VOTES

Round 4 – Freo beaten by GWS. 25 possesi but no votes here

Round 5 – Froe beat Western Bulldogs. 43 touches and a goal. BEST ON COMFORTABLY. 3 votes

 

Total – 9 votes. That also is his maximum. He will only poll in 3 games

 

 

Dusty Martin

 

Round 1 – Rich def Carlton. The first game of the season will dictate whether this bet gets up. Cripps should get 3 and Dusty 2 but Richmond did win and Dusty was huge late. Ended with 32 touches and an important goal. I’m only giving him 2 though..

Round 2 – Rich lose to Crows but Dusty was huge. 25 touches and 5 goals. Stats say that if you kick 5+ you are a 72% change of getting the 3 but Laird was enormous for the winners as was Josh Jenkins who also kicked 5 for the winners. I have him down for 1 vote

Round 3 – Rich beat Haw. Quiet day for Dusty. 21 touches. Cotchin 3 Mitchell 2 and Someone else 1. NO VOTES HERE

Round 4 – Rich beat Brisbane. Dusty 17 possies…and 6 GOALS!!! He is getting the 3 votes I reckon here although Cotchin was also huge

Round 5 – Rich def Melb. 26 touches & 10 clearances. Will be out of Lambert & Dusty for the 3 and Dusty has shown before he ctache steh eye of the umps so giving him 3 here..

 

Total – 9 votes. A bit mudder here with Dusty vs Fyfe. Best case sceario is 11 votes (Giving him3 in R1 & 2 in R2) but Cotch could get the 3 in R4 and Lambert R5 which could him down to 7.

 

 

Tom Mitchell

 

R1: Haw def Coll. 54 possesions will get him 3 votes here you’d think

R2: Haw beat Geel by a point. 40 touches. Was a lock to 3/4 time but Geel mids steamed home. Shouls till get 3 though

R3: Haw lost to Rich. 42 touches and another huge game but surely Cotchin gets the 3 here. Have Mitchell down for the 2

R4: Haw beat Melb easily. Tagged by Jones. 24 touches with little impact. WILL NOT POLL HERE

R5: Haw lose to Nth Melb. 19 touches. Tagged by Jacobs and somehow not reported and rubbed out. NO VOTES HERE

 

Total – 8 votes. Similar to Fyfe in that there are only 3 games he can realistically get votes in.

 

So in GAMBLOR’s humble opion, I cannot see Mitchell leading after 5 rounds as 8 votes won’t be enough to get it done. SB have him as favourite which means there is money to be made.

Backing Fyfe & Martin @ $3.25 & $3.50 for profit. Originally liked Fyfe but after more analysis an leaning to Dusty.

 

Bets:

Dane Beams to finish top 3 @ $5

Dane Beams to finish top 5 @ $3.25

Dean Beams to post most votes in last 8 rounds @ $2.50

Both seem a great price. I have him getting 22 votes (15 of those in the last 9 rounds so don’t panic if he is struggling early)

 

 

Gaff to lead WCE @ $2.15

Proven vote getter who had another great year. Think he did enough even if he missed the last few games.

 

Player to poll in the most games

Tom Mitchell @ $2.25 seems a lock. Should poll in 12-13 games

 

There are a heap more investment opportunities but if you revolve around the above, you should be in front.

 

 

Yours In Punting!!!

 

GAMBLOR!!!!

 

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