GAMBLOR – Finals Week 3

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While GAMBLOR correctly selected both winners (hardly something to write home about), the margin Gods weren’t overly kind. Our multi of:  Melb 1-39 / Coll -10.5 was looking great….until Adam Tomlinson kicked a seemingly meaningless late goal which made the margin (of course) 10 points. Add to that, the fact that this goal killed the Coll > 15.5 and it was an ordinary last 60 seconds of week 2 but a profit was made nevertheless.

 

Also, there is a special place in hell for Ricky Henderson who was the equal leading possession getter on the field at ½ time 14 and needed only 8 more to get for us to collect…..and of course he only got 7 more for the game to fall 1 short. NOT HAPPY JAN!

 

This was offset by the fact that GAMBLOR had more than he thought on James Worpal UNDER 19.5 (never in doubt) and a good weekend was had by all.

 

Preliminary final weekend has 2 games where 1 on face value looks easier to work out than the other. Let’s have a closer look….

 

 

Richmond vs Collingwood

MCG

Friday 21st September 2018

7.50pm EST

 

Previous Results 2018

 

Round 6

 

Richmond 16-17-113

Collingwood 10-10-70

 

Round 19

 

Richmond 16-9-105

Collingwood 12-5-77

 

 

 

I’m really not going to overthink this one as I honestly cannot see a way Collingwood win here. Sure it may happen as upsets have been known to happen in preliminary finals (1999 anyone?) and this finals series is overdue for an underdog to get up, but I cannot see a scenario in which it is likely to occur. Pies really should have won by more against GWS but didn’t take their opportunities. You’d think they’d be more clinical here but they would need to be. Weather looks like it will be fine which could also aid the Pies.

 

In saying that Richmond at the MCG have been a lock over the last two years and I haven’t seen any reason to jump off just yet. The injury cloud over Dusty (at time of publication) loomed ominously and he has been huge in the back half of the season but the thing about Richmond is the output across the board.

 

Can’t see De Goey getting the space he was afforded by GWS and without him doing what he did on the weekend, I can’t see them kicking a winning score against that Tigers defence.

 

 

Richmond by 32 points (96-64)

 

Richmond H2H @ $1.40

Richmond at the line (-17.5) @ $1.95 (Money for the Pies at the line)

Rich by >25.5 @ $2.35

 

 

 

West Coast vs Melbourne

Perth Satdium

Saturday 22nd September 2018

3.20pm EST

 

Previous Results 2018

Round 22

Melbourne 16-12 – 107

West Coast 14-7 – 91

 

 

Now THIS will be a ripper! The Dees were the team that GAMBLOR was looking for. A side hitting September in season-best form. They have gone from a team that couldn’t beat a top 8 team to a team that in the last month have done nothing but beat top 8 teams and look indestructible. My concern in watching the Dees during September is that while their best is as good as anyone, they have flat spots that let opponents back in. Against both Geelong & Hawthorn they took the foot off the gas for period and both times they were scored heavily against (relatively speaking. Both were low scoring games)

 

Credit to Melbourne, they fought back and regained the ascendancy and won both finals deservedly but I am worried that if they concede a start to the Eagles in Perth, as good as they are going they might find that too tough.

The more I type this, aren’t Melbourne the obvious pick here. The venue and opposition hold no fears as they beat them handily enough at Perth Stadium on month ago and you’d say the Dees have only gotten better since then. The Dees have a elite ruck and depth in the midfied that WCE just don’t have. WCE are very reliant on Yeo, Redden & Shuey.

Now I’ve just greyed myself up a treat!!!! AARGH!!!

Okay, I went into this picking WCE in a close one and am going to stick with but with very little confidence. Can’t wait to watch this though…

To be honest this is as close to a 50/50 coin flip as you’ll get. You can come up with compelling arguments for both  sides but GAMBLOR is leaning to the home team. Think the Eagles forward line can test the Dees defence more than it has been in the last month but only by a nose hair.

 

 

WCE by 9 points (88-79)

 

WCE 1-39 @ $2.25 seems a great price seeing as they are $1.80 H2H

 

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

Richmond at the line (-17.5) @ $1.95

or take H2H @ $1.40 for safer players

 

WCE 1-39 @ $2.25

 

Multi

 

Rich 25-39 pts / Either side by < 15.5 (WCE v Melb) @ $10.60

 

 

Yours In Punting

 

GAMBLOR!!!!

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