GAMBLOR has just the seven (7) recommend bets for the weekend and 7/7 saluted so no complaints from subscribers this week! #100%. We were super keen on both Richmond & WCE while we have Harvey Norman in the other two games. A Redden goal after the siren got our WCE >15.5 investment over the line so we got a touch lucky there. The Perth final was also a great game for live traders. You would have had ample opportunities back both teams as $2+ and lock in a guaranteed return. I must admit GAMBLOR was overly keen on Collingwood in the run but thankfully laid off for a profit. Is a risky game the live betting but if done smartly can be a good way to make money in September.
Week 2 is a round where GAMBLOR historically makes money. Traditionally people get overly carried away with the teams that win the elimination finals and jump off the team that have lost the qualifying finals and a result, GAMBLOR unloads on the latter with much success. In recent times this hasn’t held as well in the past, mainly due to the evenness of the competition and 21018 certainly ticks that box. There really isn’t a whole lot between 4th and 9th this year.
With all the being sent I reckon these two games, on face value pick themselves….
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Friday 7.50pm EST
Dees were fantastic in the first quarter against Geelong and then ground out a win against a poor Geelong. A better team may have made the Dees pay for their profligacy (is that a word) as they dominated for large period without putting in on the scoreboard. Sure I’m caught up in the Dees Fever that is sweeping the AFL but that can often be where #value is found for punters.
Hawthorn were not at their best and ultimately outclassed by Richmond on Thursday night but that is the footy equivalent and getting beaten by Winx in a horse race. Nothing to be ashamed of and the form tends to hold up pretty well. While GAMBLOR is on the Melbourne bandwagon I think people are under estimating the Hawks. The Stratton injury is what ultimately sways me but I reckon this will be a lot closer for longer than most anticipate.
From a betting perspective there really isn’t a heap of value here I’m afraid. If Hawthorn got out to $3+ I could see myself having a flutter but otherwise we may be just playing around the edges…
NOTE: This was written BEFORE the O’Meara out so that does throw quite the spanner in the works but happy to stick with the premise that this will be the closer of the two finals but confidence in the Hawks pulling off an upset is somewhat dented….
Melbourne by 9 points (87-78)
Hawthorn at the line (+15.5) @ $1.91
Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.05
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.55\
Ricky Henderson OVER 21.5 possessions $ 1.91 (Like this)
Dom Tyson OVER 21.5 possessions @ $1.91
James Worpal UNDER 19.5 possession @ $1.91
Collingwood vs GWS
Saturday 7.20pm EST
Gee the Pies were brave on Saturday night in Perth but you can’t help but think they have let an opportunity slip. Late in the 3rd term, GAMBLOR was convinced he had done his cash but the Eagles are without doubt the most under rated team of 2018 and they found a way. GWS were terrific but not really sure how much we can read into that as Sydney were truly awful and with the wonders of hindsight, were there for the taking. The Giants, when playing well pass the eye test, maybe more than any other team in the comp but just don’t do if often enough, hence their position on the ladder. No doubt they have the individuals to win a game of this magnitude
Also, the Giants record at MCG isn’t flash from memory (happy to be corrected here though).
I just feel that Collingwood are too good of a side to go out in straight sets and they will overcome, to set up an historic prelim against Richmond.
Collingwood by 26 points (89-63)
Collingwood H2H @ $1.60 is great #value
Pies at the line (-10.5) @ $1.91
Collingwood > 15.5 @ $2.15
Pies > 21.5 @ $2.60
Pendlebury to get 30+ possessions @ $2.75
Ward OVER 107.5 SC points @ $1.90
Grundy OVER 133.5 SC points @ $1.90
Collinwgood H2H @ $1.60
Ricky Henderson OVEr 21.5 touches @ $1.91
Melbourne 1-39 / Collingwood (-10.5) @ $4 seems a good price
Yours In Punting