Welcome to the best weekend in footy for the year. Some love Grand Final week for obvious reasons. Some love Round 1 as everyone’s highly (and for the most part, unrealistically) optimistic about their team and they’ve had 6 months to forget all their foibles. But for GAMBLOR, week 1 of finals is wall to wall great match ups and 2018 is certainly no exception. If anything, the week off makes it even more even as everyone’s gets a week to recuperate. I must admit, GAMBLOR is not a fan of the week off as it gives teams 5-8 and unfair leg up when really they should just be happy to be there. With that being said, there is some money to be made here so let’s get stuck in…
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Thursday 7.50pm EST
The longer the week goes on, the more confident GAMBLOR is that Richmond will not only win, but win pretty comfortably. It’s not that I don’t rate Hawthorn, it’s just that Richmond at the MCG are a 20 point better team than anyone. Add to that the fact that they are at pretty much full strength and there is a real risk that this could blow out in the 2nd half. Genius coach Clarkson will no doubt have a plan but if the Hawks have any hope they will need to be in front at ¾ time as the pace of Richmond late could really cut up the Hawks.
Richmond by 34 points (101-67)
Richmond H2H @ $1.45 is a safe multi builder in my humble.
Richmond at the line (-16.5) @ $2,00 (TAB)
Richmond by >24.4 @ $2.50
Melbourne vs Geelong
Friday 7.50pm EST
In contrast to the Thursday night game, GAMBLOR cannot get a feel for this one at all. Great cases can be made for both sides here. The Dees have hit September in great form, beating WCE in Perth then taking care of fellow finalist GWS at home. The Dees game style looks to align with what is traditionally required for success in September. Yet they haven’t had any in…however long it is…. Geelong also have hit September in great fettle with consecutive 100+ wins albeit against Freo & GC both down at Kardinia Park. As with most things in life, there are two ways to look at that fortnight of footy. A) Cats are flying and in amazing knick, chocca full of confidence and ready to take on anyone, anywhere at anytime. Or, B) They beat nothing and tin-arsed their way to 2 wins against Melbourne this year and are ready for the taking. Both are entirely valid but one will be proved wrong. History does tell us that in this situation you err towards the team who have “been there & done that” and do so with no confidence whatsoever. GAMBLOR will be attending this one so can’t wait to watch but won’t be investing heavily here.
Cats by 9 points (89-82)
If you want to back Geelong, 1-39 is the way to go @ $2.65 as it gives some value. Otherwise, we just look on.
Sydney vs GWS
Saturday 4.25pm EST
This is another game I’m having a tough time with but for very different reasons. Both Melb & Geel are in terrific form and it’s about lining up whose form is better going into it. Sydney & GWS have been pretty inconsistent in the 2nd half of the year so hard to really leap into either of them here. Sydney, surprisingly enough have been pooh at the SCG this year but have shown sparks of the Sydney of a few years ago lately with thir A graders stepping up.. Buddy is just soooo crucial for them, while the Giants just can’t seem to get a good run at it at all and while they get a few back, I’m loathe to get too excited about a team bring in multiple players from long term absences. Thinking Sydney but again, not a game I’m keen on investing heavily in.
Sydney by 15 points (92-77)
No Bet. Just have no feel whatsoever here and gut feeling seem to align with the market, hence no #value
West Coast vs Collingwood
Saturday 8.10pm EST
I think there is great value here with West Coast. Kennedy back in (I assume) is a huge plus and I’m not sure who plays on him. Yes, he’s been out for a while but it is different than say a midfielder who relies and getting from contest to contest. GAMBLOR was at the game last time these two met and while WCE won handily enough, the loss of Mason Cox was huge from a structural perspective. It allowed, Gov, Hurn & Shepherd to dominate the air in their D50. Bucks & Co would have learned lessons from that day and will have plans to ensure those outputs aren’t duplicated but it’s in WCE F50 that they will win the game. Kennedy, Darling & Cripps (is in ripping form of late) are a threat and if the WCE midfield can break even with Grundy & Co. I can see them taking this out pretty comfortably.
WCE by 27 points (98-71)
WCE H2H @ $1.65 seems a good price
WCE at the line (-8.5) @ $1.95 seems a play too
WCE > 15.5 @ $2.30 for the more adventurous
Richmond H2H @ $1.45. Short but Sweet but have all bets around Ruchmond and you’ll be winning
Rich / WCE @ $2.30
Yours In Punting