Well it’s not often GAMBLOR has a good old fashioned #HumbleBrag about his results but to tip a $12 winner in AFL is not something done every day. We sensed that Geelong would win big and they WON BIG! On target at ½ time (52 pts up) and then went right on with it to break the 100+ barrier with relative ease in the end. Glorious stuff and hope some of you got on!
Otherwise it was a reasonable week with Melbourne (finally) doing the right thing for us and keeping our pre-season premiership bet alive at least for another little while. Collingwood, & North Melbourne (covering the line) helped us out too. The injury ravaged GWS ran out of juice at the wrong time and the Hawks were regrettably dis interested against the Saints.
The last round can always throw up a few strange results, so the hunt for #value goes on…
Port Adelaide vs Essendon
Friday 7.50pm EST
I expect this to be a good old fashioned shoot out with both teams with very little to lose. This is the first a few games this round that it is very hard to get a feel for.
Port may be cooked (only won 1 out of their last 6) so playing the value here but no keen on the game at all to be honest…
Ess by 13 points (97-84)
Total Score OVER 170.5 if you must…
Geelong vs Gold Coast
Saturday 1.45pm EST
Well the TAB have learned their lesson from the weekend with Geel 100+ vs Gold Coast @ $3.35, a long way from that glorious $12 of last weekend. Conditions are expected to be ideal down at the Cattery so I see no reason as to why this won’t be another footballing massacre but the value just ain’t there this week.
Geelong by 101 points (144-43)
Total Score OVER 176.5 @ $1.91, but again only if you must…
Richmond vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 2.10pm EST
I know the Doggies have been improved over the last month and even had a win on the weekend….but they were the least awful team last Sunday. Fair to say they will run into a tougher gig here with the Tigers at the MCG. Sure Richmond may rest some blokes but don’t expect that to make a heap of difference here. Tigers by plenty
Richmond by 57 points (118-61)
Richmond by >39.5 @ $1.80 seems a good play here
Fremantle vs Collingwood
Saturday 4.35pm EST
Never thought I’d ever say this about Collingwood but they are sneaking under the radar in 2017. Everyone crapping on about Melbourne after beating a decent team for the 1st time seemingly ever, yet the Pies have gone about their business, taking care of Port Adelaide in fine style, in spite of the injuries that have hit. Freo meanwhile could become the 1st team to come off conceding 23 consecutive goals the week previous to win if they salute here. That won’t be happening…
Collingwood by 46 points (104-58)
Collingwood at the line (-31.5) @ $1.91
Carlton vs Adelaide
Saturday 7.25pm EST
Who cares. Adelaide will win by a fair bit and con people into thinking they could have made an impact in September had they made it.
Adelaide by 52 points (109-57)
No Bet. No Interest.
Sydney vs Hawthorn
Saturday 7.25pm EST
This promises to be a cracker as it is a battle for the double change and the opportunity to get 1st crack at Richmond in finals footy. The rumours of Buddy’s potential non-appearance has impacted markets in a negative way for GAMBLOR as he was keen on the Hawks irrespective of Buddy playing or not but the #value has gone. Fair play to Sydney, they looked (almost) back with their gutsy win against GWS with form from Jack & Hannebery the best signs as they have struggled throughout 2018. Loathe to bet against the Swans at the SCG though, in spite of their poor form there in 2018. Maybe the Swans are back in the flag reckoning? This game will tell us a fair bit.
Hawthorn by 4 points (87-83)
Hawthorn at the line (+9.5) but I’m wary of Sydney after getting burned by them last week.
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.45 (weak option I know but…)
Brisbane vs West Coast
Sunday 1.10pm EST
Rain is forecast for Brisbane on Sunday (as at Monday arvo) so was keen to invest in the Total Score UNDER but the bookies are on to me and had the line at 167.5 (highest I could find BET 365) which is very low for a GABBA day game. Was hoping for the to be 10 points higher but not too keen to play at that score. Eagles I reckon will win but at $1.55 are zero value. Not a game I’m too keen to get involved in at all to be honest.
West Coast by 23 points (94-71)
Confidence Level: Low-Mid
Melbourne vs Greater Western Sydney
Sunday 3.20pm EST
GAMBLOR had a good go on the Demons last weekend…and is still losing on them for 2018 which goes to show just how many times they have sucked me (and countless others) in this year. But how “Melbourne” would it be for them to fold up and lose the next week against GWS!!! I don’t think it will happen but that is more to GWS maybe being cooked rather Melbourne turning some massive corner that has opened up a premiership window. If you want to take $1.40 about the Dees against a top 8 team, I wish you all the luck in the world. You are a braver person then me… Looking forward to watching but probably won’t end up investing.
Melbourne by 13 points (98-85)
St Kilda vs North Melbourne
Sunday 4.40pm EST
In a round with a few games with little interest, this is the one I’m the least interested in. North will probably win and Ben Brown will be spoon fed goals in an attempt to get him the Coleman. On the upside it couldn’t be worse than the tripe these two teams put out on their big Good Friday stand-alone extravaganza earlier this year….or could it….
I would be backing a shoot out if I thought either of these team could actually kick straight bu the bookies seem clued on that with a high Total Point line
North by 21 points (103-81)
Harvey Norman. No Interest
Best Bets (in a round GAMBLOR does not like a great deal)
Richmond by > 39.5 @ $1.80 –
Geelong by 100+ @ $3.35 (no value but…)
Geel >59.5 / Coll >25.5 / Rich >25.5 / Haw vs Syd (<15.5) – $7
Yours In Punting