For followers of GAMBLOR it was good week but we were inches away from it being a great week with North & Port kicking late junk time goals to move their winning margins JUST out of the 1-39 brackets. Otherwise we absolutely nailed the Geelong vs Brisbane game (projected Geel by 41, they won by 42), Adelaide vs Melbourne (projected Melb by 10, they won by 13) & Richmond vs Collingwood (projected Rich 103 Coll 78 – Actual Rich 105 Coll 77) so money was made.
Round 20 is a trick one in that no fewer than 5 of the 9 games are pretty much 50/50 contests so let’s get stuck in…
Richmond vs Geelong
Friday 7.50pm EST
Forecast is for a damp Friday night which will keep scoring low but the bookies seem to on to that too. Can’t shake the feeling that Cats actually match up pretty well with Richmond and will give this an enormous shake. But tipping against Richmond at the MCG has been akin to setting fire to your wallet just after a visit to the ATM. Will be staying out but can’t wait to watch this one.
Richmond by 5 points (77-72)
Geelong at the line (+17.5) @ $1.91 if you must
Hawthorn vs Essendon
Saturday 1.45pm EST
This is the first of five “50/50” games this weekend and you could argue this is the most important of lot. This is a good old fashioned “Loser Leaves Town” match up with the loser of this unlikely to make the top 8 (but who knows after GC beating Sydney last week). Essendon over the last 2 months have been the best team in the competition and run into a Hawthorn team that a very MOR (Middle of the Road) in my humble opinion. I know the Bombers are due a shocker but I’m going to back the bomber ride will continue and make it very tough for the Hawks to play in September.
Essendon by 19 points (97-78)
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.45
Ess >15.5 @ $2.55
Brisbane vs North Melbourne
Saturday 2.10pm EST
Must admit I was ready to put a line through North Melbourne in season 2018 but last week breathed life back into their year. Although I’m not getting too excited about that win. In Tassie against an injury ravaged Eagles line up. If they didn’t win that, they had no hope of anything. Brisbane at home is a fascinating challenge and that is reflected in the prices as (at time of publication) the Lions are favourites. That is the gambling Gods tempting me to take $2 about a finals aspirant against a Brisbane side with zero to play for. I’m not falling for it though. Just don’t trust them enough bt I couldn’t take $1.80 about Brisabne against anybody though, no matter how impressive they have been at times. Forecast in 27 and fine so you all know what that means from a betting perspective….
Roos by 11 points (109-98)
Total Score OVER 183.5 @ $1.91 (Death, taxes & the OVER at the GABBA)
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 4.35pm EST
Crows fired everything they had last week at Melbourne and while it looked enough for a time, it wasn’t. I am not sold on the Power being a genuine top 4 team but the ladder at this time of year doesn’t lie and they are right in the reckoning. These games are traditionally close so loathe to get too excited from a betting perspective here. Do the Crows have one more bullet left in the chamber or are they out? I don’t feel lucky….punk, so I’ll be staying out here.
Power by 3 points (87-84)
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 7.25pm EST
Two garbage sides going at it here and the degenerate gambler in GAMBLOR is soooo keen to have a massive crack at St Kilda but then the sensible football wagering investor in GAMBLOR remind himself of Rule 1 – Never big bet on bad teams. They cannot be trusted. That’s why they are bad! With being said I think $1.70 is a great price for St Kilda. They have been pretty competitive for the last month, just haven’t kicked straight while the Dogs are awful and haven’t been able to kick a reasonable score at all of late (averaging 52 points in the last month). Reckon Saints will do this easily but how can you trust them…
St Kilda by 33 points (94-61)
St Kilda at the line (-7.5) @ $1.91
St Kilda >15.5 @ $2.20 seems a great price considering the above bet
St Kilda by 40+ @ $5.50 is worth a small flutter
Total Score UNDER 160.5 @ $1.91 and hope St Kilda kick as inaccurately as they have all year…
I’m not saying put all of these on but there is money to be made amongst them…
Sydney vs Collingwood
Saturday 7.25pm EST
Another 50/50 games here with the Swans in free fall and if you believe what you read, will never win another game and may fold at the end of the season. I exaggerate slightly of course but that is certainly the vibe out there about Sydney. They come home to play a Collingwood team who will do well to get 22 blokes out there as the injury big has bitten hard. Very tough game to call but see a touch of value in the Pies. Not a game GAMBLOR will be investing heavily in.
Collingwood by 7 points (92-85)
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.55 if you must
Carlton vs GWS
Sunday 1.10pm EST
Carlton with their win against Gold Coast at Carrara last week have secured most interstate wins than Richmond in 2018 so a flag is just around the corner I’m sure… Giants were actually pretty awful last week and if the Saints had of kicked straight, they may have had a fright. Not sure they’ll get a fright here and with the return of Jeremy Cameron to the line-up, the Ferrari of the AFL is nearly at full capacity. GWS could win this by heaps or maybe they’d be like last week and couldn’t be arsed and doe enough to get the job done.
GWS by 47 points (103-55)
Total Score UNDER 167.5 @ $1.91 if you must…
Melbourne vs Gold Coast
Sunday 3.20pm EST
This could get really ugly. Although the last time I said that about a GC game was against Sydney and look how that turned out…. But I reckon the Dees are travelling a touch better than the Swans
Melbourne by 76 points (121-45)
Harvey Norman. No Interest.
West Coast vs Fremantle
Sunday 4.40pm EST
This comment may come back to bite me but in spite of the personnel WCE are currently missing, I cannot see how Freo can beat the Eagles without Sandi & Fyfe. Just cannot see the Dockers kicking a winning score against that WCE defence. This is published before selection so will be interested to see if Taberner & McCarthy come in as they could at least provide an option or two for them. Again, for fear of repeating myself, not a game I want to get ovely involved in.
WCE by 36 points (96-60)
Total Score UNDER 169.5 @ $1.91 if you must…
Total Score OVER 183.5 – Bris vs Nth @ $1.91
St Kilda by 40+ @ $5.50
Geelong (+23.5) / Ess / St Kilda (>15.5) / Melb >39.5 / WCE >24.5 @ $9
Yours In Punting