Another week down, another Best Bet saluting for GAMBLOR. While it was a winning round, it had its black spots with Gold Coast and Essendon not giving a whimper against more favoured opposition.
We are half way through the season and I think we can say with confidence that we are down to 11 teams fighting for 8 finals sports. If you want to make it 12 and include Essendon, your money is always good here.
Round 12 signifies the commencement of the byes with only 7 games this week and there is not a whole lot that leaps off the page from a punting perspective but if you think that will stop us from having a crack, you must be new to this article…
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Friday 7.50pm EST
The Power are a genuine middle of the road team and that was shown last weekend but their narrow loss to fellow MOR traveller, Hawthorn. Back at home should assist but last weekend was officially the last time I have any investment against Richmond (especially at the MCG). They were awesome and solidified their spot as flag favourites. Weather forecast looks bleak for Adelaide so for those keen on a Friday night shoot-out may well be disappointed again. Port will hang in there for large portions but Tigers will be too strong.
EDIT: Since my write up was written (Tues) this market has turned on its head, mainly I assume to Dusty not playing. Suddenly you can get $2.35 about Rich H2H. Now THATS value.
Richmond by 23 points (81-58)
Richmond H2H @ $1.70
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.05
Total Score UNDER 154.5 @ $1.91
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Saturday 1.10pm EST
This promises to be a ripper as both teams are coming off terrific wins against Queensland opposition. Quite the contrast these two sides from a list management perspective. Geelong have a top 5-6 players the envy of the league but fall away badly, while North have an evenness about them that allows a spreading of the load. The fact that the game is in Geelong has been swaying slightly in favour of the Cats but if a silly price is offered about North ($3+), GAMBLOR would be morally obliged to get involved. As it stands though, I won’t be playing here. I agree with the bookies markets…
Geelong by 16 points (95-79)
GWS vs Gold Coast
Saturday 4.35pm EST
The battle of the new franchises and poor old Gold Coast run into GWS at the worst possible time in 2018. GWS are up and about after a potentially season defining win in Adelaide against the Crows while the Suns were truly awful in their return home against Geelong. In the first half it was heir ball use and the 2nd half… well they just gave up. Again, weather looks a little ordinary but not game alteringly so (is alteringly a word?) . Giants should win handily enough but not a team I’d be keen to take a massive line with as they have a propensity to show boat and take the foot off when the heat is removed from the contest. Another stay-away for me…
GWS by 44 (107-63)
St Kilda vs Sydney
Saturday 7.25 pm EST
Now this could be a sneaky close game (although I did think that about GC vs Geel last week). Saints, while not winning are getting better every week and at some stage surely have to break thorough for a victory while the Swans are going about life very professionally. Noting dazzling, just accumulating 4 points per week with a minimum of fuss. While I won’t be so bold as to suggest the Saints will win, I feel they will be most competitive and the bookies are offering a very tempting line of +28.5 (to suck me in no doubt)
Sydney by 9 points (88-79)
St Kilda at the line (+28.5) @ $1.91
Sydney 1-24 @ $3.20 #value
Brisbane vs Essendon
Sunday 1.10pm EST
I was all set to unleash on Brisbane in this one…until I saw their injury list from the weekend. Cameron, Christiansen & McCluggage all look to be out (as at Tuesday night) which makes me nervous. Essendon were back to their early season form which proves it was the 1st 8 weeks that were the inomily, it was the fortnight after it. We can make money from this game though in spite of the fact I have no idea who’ll win. The Total Score OVER bet at the GABBA ha historically been our most profitbale and see no reason why it won’t be the case here. A sunny Sunday afternoon is forecast so we can bet with a bit of confidence here with two attacking sides.
Essendon by 19 points (111-92)
Total Score OVER 185.5 @ $1.91
Fremantle vs Adelaide
Sunday 4.40pm EST
Maybe I could have found an excuse to back Freo at the price is Nay Fyfe was playing but at time of publication he is out so couldn’t entertain them beating an egg without him. Not that the Crows are exactly flying. If you believe what you read such are the injuries down there that Wayne Weidermann & Dr Matthew Liptak could make a long awaited return to the Crows line up. #90’sFlashBack Again, weather could play a role here as the forecast surprisingly for Perth is damp although the worst of the weather may have been and gone by the time this one starts. Very hard to egt enthused about this game in any way, shape or form. Harvey Norman (no interest).
Adelaide by 21 points (89-68)
Melbourne vs Collingwood
Monday 3.20pm EST
Finally a decent game to get our teeth stuck into here with 2 in form teams running into each other. The loss of Lever is a big one for the Dees but just how big we won’t know until we see how they fair without him. This aside they are firing on all cylinders though. Pies have been terrific over the last month or so and are genuine top 8 contenders but I believe Melbourne are a 1-4 team while Collingwood area 5-8 teams so have to lean their way in what should be a great Queens Birthday clash.
Melbourne by 22 points (97-75)
Melbourne at the line (-9.5) @ $1.91
Brisbane vs Essendon OVER 185.5 @ $1.91
St Kilda H2H @ $4.35
Nth Melb (+25.5) / GWS (>25.5 ) / St Kilda (+25.5) / Bris vs Ess (Total >185.5) / Melb – $ 13
Yours In Punting