GAMBLOR – ROUND ELEVEN

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

Another bumper weekend for GAMBLOR with both our best bets saluting. Let’s keep it rolling peple….

 

 

Sydney vs Carlton

SCG

Friday 7.50pm EST

 

Swans did enough (and literally nothing else) against Brisbane last week and are ticking along nicely. No one knows better than Longmire & Co that it’s a marathon not a sprint and there comes a time in the year when it is about getting 4 points and anything on top of that is gravy. Meanwhile, the Blues were much more competitive and even could have nicked a win against Geelong at the Cattery. Weather forecast is inclement so expect more ammunition for people who don’t like Carlton on Friday nights as it will a scrappy one. Little to no interest in getting involved here.

 

Sydney by 41 points (97-56)

 

Total Score UNDER 164.5 @ $1.91 could be a solid play here if the weather closes in.

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

Marvel Stadium LOL

Saturday 1.45pm EST

 

Doggies showed signs of improvement on Friday night against an in form Collingwood but faded horribly late. They have had a number of periods in games where they literally stop and seeing that doesn’t scream “Back me next start”. Especially if you backed them at the line last week and thought you were home at ¼ time. #OUCH. That heavy feeling your experiencing is everyone jumping on the Melbourne bandwagon that we got on a few weeks ago. All of a sudden 3rd favourite for the flag and seemingly unstoppable. They will win this again and are going well but let’s cool thy jets a touch on a team that haven’t won a crunch game this century… Only a small play here.

 

Melbourne by 33 points (103-70)

 

Melbourne 1-39 and hope the Doggies can hang in there…. @ $2.25.

 

 

 

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide

York Park, Launceston

Saturday 2.10pm EST

 

Would nearly classify this as the first of no doubt many “8 pointers” this season. With the gap between 5th & 12th being negliable, games between these sides will effecctively determine who plays finals and who doesn’t. The 8 points comes from not only Team A winning 4 points,, but also denying team B 4 points by beating them, hence an “8 pointer”. Right, with that out of the way I haven’t a clue who will win this. Hawthorn had their chances against WCE but ultimately weren’t up to it while Port will aim to get some consistancy into their game post bye. Leaning to Haw purely due to their Tassie record but think  Port overall are a better side. Clear as mud? Awesome. Good chat.

 

Hawthorn by 2 points (93-91)

 

Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.55 if you must. Bookies have it 50/50 and I agree

 

 

Gold Coast vs Geelong

Cararra

Saturday 4.35pm EST

 

This game signifies the return of Gary Ablett to Metircon. One gets the feeling it won’t be as celebrated as GAJ’s return to Kardinia Park last week. It also signifies the return of the Travelling Wilbury’s of the AFL back to their home ground and I’m sure their 73 supporters that have been waiting for months to see them in the flesh will be chomping at the bit. Cats have a history of under-performing in such games and Suns look likely to get back Lynch & Day which will straighten them up. Still think the Cats are succeptable to tall forwards. Have a feeling the Suns coming off a break will be super-competitive here.

 

Geelong by 9 points (92-83)

 

Gold Coast at the line (+24.5) @ $1.90

Very small bet GC H2H @ $3.50

 

 

Essendon vs Richmond

MCG

Saturday 7.25pm EST

 

DreamTime at the G is fast becoming one of the great events on the AFL calendar and thankfully, the Bombers have picked up their form significantly over the last fortnight so as to ensure that there is a contest befitting of such an occasion. GAMBLOR said at the start of the year that the Dons were the hardest team to work out and we are half way through the season and we are none the wiser. Luck may be on their side as while the Dons are flying, the all-conquering premiership holders are experiencing a bit of a flat spot *Carlton fan screams “We’d kill for a flat spot like this* Her me out. Over the last month, Richmond fell over the line against North, lost in Perth to WCE and did enough (and not much more) against a poor St Kilda. Not exactly panic stations but enough to think that if the Dons bring the form of late they are a show. Hard team to trust though Essendon so won’t be going too hard here…

 

Richmond by 10 points (98-88)

 

Essendon at the line (+21.5) @ $1.90

Small bet Ess H2H @ $3.50

 

 

 

West Coast vs St Kilda

Perth Stadium

Saturday 8.10pm EST

 

WOW! Now this could get ugly. Saints have actually been okay (for them) in the last fortnight but are just off the pace of what is required and the Eagles at home is not the fixture you really want right now…Nine games on the trot with no signs of their dominant form abating. Never too keen to get involved in games there is such a short favourite though. I always take the favourite at the line only for the underdog to kick 3 meaningless junk time goals in the last term to do my balls. Not this time punting Gods!!! Not this time.

 

West Coast by 54 points (119-65)

 

No Bet

 

 

North Melbourne vs Brisbane

Docklands

Sunday 1.10pm EST

 

 

North are fair dinkum flying and as much as the footy world has tried to put their performances down to a one off here and there, the last months body of work has been rock solid. GAMBLOR is kicking himself that he didn’t catch on this earlier as they are a great value side. By that I mean you always get a  good price about North as they are rarely talked up in the media. Collingwood win two in a row and all of a sudden they are being backed like they will never lose a game again. North are the reverse as the last couple of weeks has proven.  Brisbane meanwhile have had a great fortnight, albeit solely at the GABBA. Away from home, they have and probably will struggle.

 

North by 35 points (107-72)

 

North at the line (-25.5) @ $1.90 could be the play

 

 

Collingwood vs Fremantle

MCG

Sunday 3.20pm EST

 

Collingwood are another team coming off a great month that has put them right back into Top 8 calculations. It seems the one things all successful teams have in the modern era of AFL is a settled defensive line. In this day and age of zoning an team defence, the cohesion between your defenders is crucial and seemingly the best way of getting that is playing games together. Pies haven’t had this in some time but are getting it now. Dunn on the last line taking the key forward, Howe dominant at CHB and the injection of Scharenberg, Appleby & Crisp gives a nice mix of intercept marking, run and good ball use. Freo literally don’t travel and with no Sandi, this could get really ugly!!!!

 

Pies by 52 points (102-50)

 

Collingwood at the line (-32.5) @ $1.90

 

 

Adelaide vs GWS

Adelaide Oval

Sunday 4.40pm EST

 

 

Repeat after me. The Giants are no good. The Giants are no good. We don’t want to believe this but 10 games into the season, what other option do we have? Just because this is deemed a “must win” by the footy media, everyone is expecting a better performance from GWS. Like they can turn it on and off whenever they want. The only thing that is in any way tempting is the price and the fact that Crows are S T Ruggling also. A game I’m really interested in watching and no interest in investing in.

 

Adelaide by 21 points (109-87)

 

Total Score OVER @ $1.91 if you must. Could be a shoot out.

 

 

Best Bet

 

Collingwood at the line (-32.5)

 

 

 

Best Roughie

 

Essendon H2H @ $3.50

 

 

 

Multi:                    Melb >15.5 / Coll at the line (-32.5 / WCE > 25.5 /

 

 

Value Multi:       Melb >25.5 / Haw v Port (<15.5) / GC at the line (+24.5) / Coll at the line (-32.5)  @ $14.50

 

 

Roughie Multi:  GC / Ess  @ $10

 

 

 

Yours In Punting

 

GAMBLOR!!!

 

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