GAMBLOR is annoyed. Sure there were some upsets but had GAMBLOR taken the time to look closely, a number of them could have been found. Very disappointed with my set last week and albeit a short turn around between games, GAMBLOR is determined to set some more time aside to find some winners and get back on track.
I must admit suspicions were aroused when the bookies offered a very generous line of -14.5 or Hawthorn against North. How do they know?????
Let’s rebound here in Round 6.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Rule No1 for GAMBLOR is don’t invest too much money (if any) and games between 2 bad sides. Both these teams meet that criteria currently. Blues were much improved last week and a repeat effort of that would beat the Bulldogs team we saw in Perth last weekend. But footy doesn’t really work like that. A classic stay away game.
Carlton by 5 points (89-84)
Geelong vs Sydney
Saturday 1.45pm EST
Cats are next to unbeatable at home while Sydney have some questions marks over them. In saying that, as soon as a team cops some flack in the media they come out and win the next week. Swans don’t have the worst record down at the Cattery either. Not a game I want to get too involved in.
Geelong by 19 points (93-74)
Geelong by 1-24 @ $3 if you must
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 2.10 PM EST
Well it’s fair to say that North Melbourne are both up and about. The win against Hawthorn has me thinking that we might have gotten a touch carried away with the Hawks early doors but credit where its due, the Kangas have been white hot in the last fortnight. Port have gone from being flag contenders who have recruited cleverly to meet needs to also rans who have fallen for the trap of picking up recycled players in the space of the same fortnight. Footy is funny like that. I like the Power to bounce back but $1.46 is a truly disgusting price.
Port by 22 points (102-80)
No value = No Bet
GWS vs Brisbane
Saturday 4.35pm EST
Early forecast Sydney and surrounding areas for Saturday is wet and the last time Brisbane played in the wet, they kicked 2 goals for the game. Also coming off a heart breaking loss in the Q Clash and I’m not sure the young blokes will be able to lift again here. Meanwhile the giants were lucky to escape with a share of the spoils against an, up until the, pretty ordinary Saints side. Giants aren’t going great but are getting results. Not a bad way to be early on in the year. If the rain does come, I feel the more mature bodies of GWS could really get on top here and this could be a blow out.
GWS by 52 (101-49)
GWS by 40+ @ $
Hawthorn vs St Kilda
York Park, Launceston
Saturday 7.25pm EST
Let’s be honest here. Who knows! Hawks were looking pretty solid but once you tag T Mitchell out of the side, they look pretty flaccid in the guts (take that anyway you like it). Saints put up a very brave effort against GWS and maybe are slowly starting to get it together. I dare anyone tip this with confidence. Leaning to the Hawks purely due their great record at York Park but ath current price, how can you not have something on the Saints..
Hawthorn by 8 points (93-85)
St Kilda at the line (+22.5) @ $1.92
St Kilda H2H @ $3.65 (seems #value)
Adelaide vs Gold Coast
Saturday 7.40pm EST
Never write off a great side. We didn’t heed that lesson last Friday night when the Crows bounced back with a morale boosting win in Sydney against the Swans. Will be interesting to see whether that was an emotional one-off or they can back it up. The Suns have been great early doors although the Lions if they were any good at all should have beaten them on the weekend. Corws to win handy enough but books seem to have this about right.
Adelaide by 45 points (113-68)
No value = No Bet
Essendon vs Melbourne
Sunday 1.10pm EST
Again, another two teams whose best is top 4 material, but worst misses the 8 with ease. Both team coming off a short break so not overly sure what to expect here. Not overly keen on taking a short quote about Melbourne at Docklands, especially against the Bombers who can score goals in a real hurry at his venue. Although the Dees torched us against Hawthorn a fortnight ago, I’m still a believer that they can get it together. There is just too much talent there for it not to work out at some stage in the season. Won’t be leaping in here though.
Melbourne by 11 points (97-86)
Harvey Norman = No Interest from an investing perspective
Collingwood vs Richmond
Sunday 3.20pm EST
The other two teams that have the short break meet here in a ripper at the MCG.
Tigers are going along beautifully but I would saw as of right now, the 2nd best team from a structure / on-field organisation perspective is Collingwood. The Pies will never be in a better position to win a game like this and really have nothing to lose. Loathe to tip against this Richmond side at the moment but the bookies are tempting me with those process… This will be a nail biter I reckon…
Collingwood by 3 points (91-88)
Collingwood at the line +16.5 @ $192
Fremantle vs West Coast
Love a good derby and this looks to be a fascinating one, the first at the new stadium so the noise/atmosphere should be electric. Fair play to the Eagles. They were predicted for bottom 4 this year and after 5 rounds find themselves atop the ladder. Yes, they have had a nice draw, running into a horribly out of sorts Western Bulldogs & Carlton as their 2 away games to date. Fair to say they’ll get tougher than that. But you can only play against what’s out there and with a fit Nic Nat and JK back and getting better with every game, they will always be a threat at home. Freo meanwhile to be following the pattern of being super competitive at home and at times, awful away. We made good money on Freo last weekend and reckon we can do so again here. And we are getting a nice price.
Freo by 19 points (99-80)
Freo H2H @ $2.20
Freo 1-39 @ $2.75
Freo H2H @ $2.20
GWS by 40+
Collingwood at the line (+16.5)
Carlton H2H vs Western Bulldogs
St Kilda H2H vs Hawthorn
Most Individual Goals for the round
GWS >25.5 / Adel > 25.5 / Rich v Coll (< 15.5) / Freo @ $
Yours In Punting