Apologies for the lack of article last week as GAMBLOR was sunning himself overseas, cleaning out the Macau casinos & Hong Kong racecourses. This round is interesting for one reason in particular. The weather. Regular GAMBLOR followers have made good money by us looking at the long term weather forecasts and backing games to be lower scoring than anticipated due to this fact. Rain is forecast for most of Australia this weekend and while the bookies have adjusted to a degree for this, there is still #value out there…
Adelaide vs Collingwood
Friday 7.50pm (EST)
After a slip up in R1 the Crows have looked as solid as ever and no more so than when at home. Can’t see them dropping too many games in Adelaide in 2018 and I don’t expect this to be one of them. Pies were improved last weekend but they didn’t beat much to be frank. The Collingwood midfield cam more than match it with Adel, but can’t see them kicking a winning score against that defense. Forecast is stormy/wet so expect a messy one which may aid the Pies but Crows too good. Bookies seem to have this about right so not a heap a #value here
Adel by 31 (94-63)
Total Score UNDER 174.5 @ $1.91 could be worth a look but watch the Adelaide skies.
GWS vs Fremantle
Saturday 1.45pm (EST)
Not a game to get terribly excited about from any perspective at all here. Giants on the rebound from a touch up from their neighbours should go well here. Freo have been okay so far but continue to have trouble kicking a winning score (especially away from Perth). Will be a blustery day in the nations capital so expect a pretty scrappy affair. The Dockers of 2018 strike me as team that will be quite tough to beat at home but may cop the odd whacking on the road. This could be one of those….
GWS by 51 points (113-62)
GWS at the line (-34.5) @ $1.91
GWS by 40 + @ $2.15
Richmond vs Brisbane
Saturday 2.10pm (EST)
As good as the young Brisbane side were on the weekend in Adelaide, the trip back to Brisbane and then to Melbourne in 7 days must take its toll. Also it was a hot one in Adelaide last weekend so GAMBLOR will be surprised if the Lions can back up that terrific effort. Richmond are ticking along very nicely and with players to come back in, are only going to get better. Again, the weather looks a touch wet and wild so expecting a lower scoring game than initially anticipated.
Richmond by 34 points (103-69)
No Bet. Bookies have this right.
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
Saturday 4.35pm (EST)
The Doggies on the weekend proved yet again to us that follow AFL that there really isn’t much between about 12 sides in this comp but it’s all about who is switched on and playing confidently. Yes this was an improvement from them but it’s another step up again the Swans who, unlike last year, have hit the ground running in 2018. My goodness which poor kid gets the gig on Buddy? From abetting perspective its tough because you just don’t know what to get from the Doggies.
Sydney by 22 points (102-80)
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15 if you must
North Melbourne vs Carlton
Saturday 7.25pm (EST)
A cold, wet Hobart night to host 2 of the lower team in the comp. Sounds like a ripper! NOT!!!! Kangas were good for a while again the Dees until they got fair dinkum while the Blues have been pilloried for their 2018 efforts to date but I’d argue the only bad one was against GC and they are better than most thought. As we know one of GAMBLOR’s rules in to not get too involved in games between two bad sides but if the Blues are ever going to win a game, this looks as good a chance as ever.
Carlton by 5 points (87-82)
Carlton at the line (+11.5) @ $1.91
Carlton H2H @ $2.45 yet Carlton 1-39 @ $3.05. If the Blues win it won’t be by 40+ so the 1-39 bet is a huge #value play.
West Coast vs Gold Coast
Saturday 8.10pm (EST)
GAMBLOR is on the verge of eating some humble pie about the Eagles…but not just yet. West Coast were impressive in defeat against flag contenders Sydney, beat the Bulldogs in Melbourne and then ran over an under-manned Cats at home. So why am I still a non-believer? Gold Coast meanwhile have had a unique preparation for this game in that they have spent the week in Perth after playing Freo last weekend “at home” in Perth. No idea whether that will help or hinder to be honest but I like what I’ve seen from the Suns in 2018. Much more physical and tackle hungry than previous incarnations. Not sure they can win here but they’ll get closer than most think.
West Coast by 11 points (103-92)
Gold Coast at the line (+36.5) @ $1.91
Total Score OVER 176.5 @ $1.91
If you can multi these, please do so.
Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Sunday 1.10pm (EST)
I have found and will continue to find Essendon the hardest team to work out. Didn’t get sucked in to all the premiership talk but though(and still think) they will go well in 2018. They run into an undefeated Power side who are backing up the preseason hype. With all the negativity surrounding Essendon I was really hoping for a better price than $2.35 but I’ll take it, albeit only a small investment. Port have been good but from memory don’t have a super record against Ess in Melbourne. Only a small play here.
Essendon by 9 points (96-85)
Essendon H2H @ $2.35
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Sunday 3.20pm (EST)
Game of the round for me here. The Hawks have been vastly improved in 2018, mainly thanks to some key cattle being back on the park but I think the media have gotten a touch carried away with them and they were ultimately caught short against a Tigers side that was missing some important pieces. Melbourne meanwhile are ticking along very nicely indeed. Did what they had too against North after a sluggish start. The only reason I’m not “chips in” on the Dees is their propensity for significant brain farts. All that being said they should win here and prove that the $17 we got for them to win the flag was overs. Conditions look ordinary so expect scoring to be lower than anticipated. I’ll be playing here
Melbourne by 21 points (93-72)
Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.35 (I like this)
Melbourne at the line (-5.5) @ $1.92
Total Score UNDER 187.5 @ $1.92
Geelong vs St Kilda
Kardinia Park, Geelong
Sunday 4.40pm (EST)
In short, the Cats are absolutely there for the taking with all the injuries they are suffering. Add Ablett, Guthrie & Cockatoo to an already sizable injury list. But the Saints haven’t shown anything like being able to take advantage of this. The more you watch St Kilda ain 2018, the more you appreciate how good Saint Nick was. Not a betting game at all in that I cannot take Geelong at $1.22 with the cattle they are missing and their surprisingly poor record against poor sides while I wouldn’t take a price about St Kilda scoring let alone winning. A stay away game if I’ve ever seen one…
Geelong by 22 (104-82)
Melbourne 1-39 vs Hawthorn
Gold Coast at the line (+36.5) vs West Coast
Carlton 1-39 vs Nth Melbourne
Essendon 1-39 vs Port Adelaide
Leading Possession Getter for the Round
Tom Mitchell (boring I know but…)
Leading Goalkicker for the Round
Highest Team Score
Richmond (very confident is weather holds out)
Lowest Team Score
Random Bet (ask WH to put this together for you)
Dustin Martin: 35+ touches (20+ min kicks) 2+ goals, 4+ marks & 2+ tackles. Would want a price of $5 min.
Yours In Punting