It would be fair to say that the mighty GAMBLOR has hit the ground running in 2018. Both of his best bets coming home with the call early in the week about the weather forecast for Cairns ensuring that the UNDER 162.5 total match points was never in doubt with a total of 94 being scored in monsoonal conditions. Glorious result for GAMBLOR that! Always pays to have a cheeky look at the long term weather forecast. Can make you a lot of money. Also the Swans won well but alas not well enough to get our best roughie home.
6 out of 9 recommended bets saluted with Max Gawn costing us another one. Good weekend all around.
Round two is always interesting. Teams that lose round 1 are GORNE and Round 1 winners are suddenly talking premiership and the markets reacts accordingly. As such, GAMBLOR tends to look for value with round 1 losers that I believe are quality sides. And there are a few here…
Adel v Rich
Rich by 7 points (93-86)
A Grand Final rematch that I’m not too keen to get involved in as the Crows are traditionally very hard to beat at home but they are still without some key cattle (if Tim Lynch plays my tip will change) and faded badly against Essendon which showed signs of their delayed preseason. Won’t be betting myself but the Tigers are the value.
Nth Melb v St Kilda
St Kilda by 44 points (118-74)
Saints weren’t super impressive against Brisbane but had the quality to get the job done and meet a north side on a six day break coming back from a water logged Carins. While the Saints are not team I trust with my hard earned all that often, this is a chance we can make some coin off them you’d think.
St Kilda at the line (-19.5) @ $1.92 seems a lock
St Kilda by > 25.5 @ $2.15
St Kilda by 40 @ $3.15
St Kilda by 60+ @ $5.75
NOTE: The bets get smaller and smaller as you go down the list (obviously in order of confidence).
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Carlton by 5 points (102-97)
Regular followers of GAMBLOR know that one of Golden Rules of AFL punting is don’t get too invested in games involving two bad teams. Just because they tend to me more unpredictable in their output in any given week. This game is a classic example. When GAMBLOR 1st saw the market, he smelled tremendous value with the Suns in what is a battle between two pretty even teams but you take into consideration the travel and the wet weather that GC toiled through and you can understand why the Blues are favourite. Not that you will get me taking $1.45 Carlton against anyone in 2018 mind you. This game screams STAY AWAY!
Collingwood v GWS
GWS by 31 points (99-68)
The Pies looked exactly the same as they did in 2017 against the Hawks on Saturday night (That isn’t a compliment). Giants looked like super stars but to be fair, they were allowed to as at times they had no opposition. While this is a very even competition, I cannot see a way how the Pies could beat GWS. Where do their goals come from? Who plays on Cameron / Greene / Patton? I think you know here this is going…
GWS by > 15.5 @ $1.80
Total Score UNDER 179.5 @ $1.92
Bris v Melb
Melbourne by 34 points (111-77)
The Lions were plucky against Saints but ultimately outgunned while Melbourne took a half to walk up against Geelong and still nearly won. GAMBLOR is big on the Dees being the real deal this year and if that is the case, they’d want to win this pretty well.
Melbourne at the line (-18.5) @ $1.92
Melbourne by > 25.5 @ $2.15
Melbourne by 40+ @ $3.15
NOTE: Same deal with betting structure. Smaller outlays with the rougher bets (10 units / 5 units / 2 units)
Fremantle v Essendon
Essendon by 15 points (91-76)
The young Dockers were pretty ordinary and never looked likely against a Power side who at home won’t be dropping too many games while the Bombers win against Adelaide was huge, coming from 20 points down and without Zac Merrett. Am backing Freo will be a much more competitive outfit at home and GAMBLOR is not as “all in” on Essendon as the public seem to be. A game to be very way of from a punting perspective so will be staying away.
Western Bulldogs vs WCE
Western Bulldogs by 14 (102-88)
Eagles were surprisingly impressive at times at home against Sydney without ever really looking like winning. Nic Nat much such a difference. He really turns vanilla mids into good mids just by being there. There is always one team touched up in R1 and in 2018 it was the Doggies. They looked awful and the defence was seemingly full of overawed kids. Sure the Bulldogs are in Struggle town but I’ve seen much better Eagles teams than this to precious little in Melbourne so not keen to jump on there.
Harvey Norman. No Interest here.
Sydney vs Pt Adelaide
Port by 3 points (91-88)
Sydney got the job done albeit with a little scare from WCE (well, Nic Nat) in Perth. Buddy & Parker both were incredible and looks et for huge seasons. Port were impressive although the opposition may turn out to be pretty ordinary. Was keen on Port at the price here but the loss of Ryder cannot be under-estimated, especially in a match up like this where he would have dominated. Should be a tight contest and will still tip Port in a nail biter but with no real confidence. Should be a great game to watch but not invest.
Port at the line (+15.5) @ $1.92 if you must
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Hawthorn by 9 points (99-90)
Was taken by the Hawks on Saturday night. Looks a much more balanced line up with Stratton, Sicily & Frawley back in defence while Gunston, Breust, Roughy, Poppy etc… in the forward line are threatening at all times. O’Meara & Mitchell were great in the middle and need to be at their best against Selwood, Ablett, Duncan and the returning Danger. Just worried about the lack of experience / talls in defence for the Cats. Mackie & Lonergan retired and Henderson & Taylor out injured. Just think there is a little value with the Hawks but recent history tells me that betting against Geelong in the H&A season is not a profitable experience.
Hawks H2H @ $2.20
Hawks at the line (+8.5)
St Kilda (-17.5) vs North Melbourne @ $1.92
Other Bets Bets
Melbourne (-18.5) vs Brisbane @ $1.92
St Kilda by 40 @ $3.15
Melbourne by 40+ @ $3.20
St K (>15.5) / GWS (>15.5) / Melb (>15.5) – $5.50
Yours In Punting