From a punting perspective there are 2 ways of looking at Round 1. A time to “wait & see” to find out who is up and about and who is struggling. OR, it’s the best week of the year for #value as the bookies are not up to speed yet and are giving you a great price on teams that are ready to rock & roll.
For 8 of the 9 games I am the former but there is a game that GAMBLOR is prepared to open the purse strings…
Let’s get into 2018 then…
Rich v Carl
Rich by 33 points (114-81)
A new look attacking Blues will ensure that they score more, but will also mean they will concede more so the “Over Total Score” bet could be a savvy one in the early weeks of the season until the bookies catch on. Tigers have looked great in the preseason so no reason to suggest that they won’t pick up where they left off in 2017. No value here though.
Total Score OVER 178.5 @ $1.92 if you must
Ess v Adel
Ess by 14 points (98-84)
Pretty keen on the new look Bombers and even keener now the Crows are missing some stars.
Ess 1-39 @ 2.50
St Kilda v Brisbane
St Kilda by 44 points (112-68)
Not a match-up that arouses Gamblor in any way, shape or form. Still burnt from going hard on St Kilda at this venue 12 months ago against Melbourne. A punter never forgets….
Port vs Freo
Port by 35 points (103-72)
A hot & windy day forecast for Adelaide on Saturday so this may be a scrappy (and low scoring affair). Port should win but this could be a new look Freo in 2018 so tread warily.
Total Score UNDER 183.5 @ $1.92
Gold Coast vs Nth Melbourne
Gold Coast by 7 points (71-63)
The forecast for Cairns is WET. VERY WET! But the bookies have also spotted this with the Total Score line being 162.5. Still I reckon the the monsoonal rains they get up there, we can still get the UNDER home.
Total Score UNDER 162.5 @ $1.92
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Hawthorn by 21 points (102-81)
Again, not a game I have a great feel for other than I reckon Hawthorn might go okay early on in 2018. Seem to have most if not all of their troops up and about. Meanwhile, I still don’t know who will kick the Pies goals…
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40
Hawthorn 1-24 @ $3.40
GWS vs Western Bulldogs
Giants by 11 points (100-89)
Not a game I’m keen to invest in but very keen to watch. Giants are due a good run with injury in 2018 and will be a major threat while the Doggies are due to bounce back but the rumblings you hear from Whitten Oval have Gamblor concerned…
GWS 1-39 @ $2.10 is no value but if you must…
Melbourne vs Geelong
Melbourne by 9 points (98-89)
Another R1 cracker with two teams expected to finish top 8 meeting here. Not mch splitting these two but think Dees will be hard to top at the G this year. Seem value but again, Gamblor is not invetsing much this round. Just a look and see.
Melbourne H2H @ $1.95 (hope to get better once Danger is confirmed as playing)
WCE vs Sydney
Sydney by 41 points (118-76)
Rarely bet against a Perth team at home but Gamblor fears for both WA teams in season 2018. Add to that, the new stadium and albeit in the short term, they lose an element of home ground advantage as everyone gets used to the new joint. Sydney look ready and raring to go, keen to ensure they do not start as they did 12 months ago. WCE with Priddis, Mitchell, Petrie & Josh Kennedy from last year look weak on paper. Could be a very ugly start to a long season
Sydney by 40+ @ $3.45
Sydney at the line (-13.5) @ $1.92
Sydney at the line (-13.5) @ $1.92
Best Other Bets
Gold Coast vs Nth Melb – Total Score UNDER 162.5
Sydney by 40+ @ $3.40
Yours In Punting