How quickly has 2017 gone? Cannot believe that we are already in Grand Final week and I can’t imagine too many people to have predicted that it would be played between Adelaide & Richmond. In saying that, no one can argue about the combatants. Clearly the best two sides in September are meeting at the big dance. Both sides have won both their finals convincingly at home and the fact that this one is obviously played at the MCG has to be a factor. GAMBLOR has been lucky enough to be at both of Richmond’s finals this year and the atmosphere has been incredible. It really will be a home game for the Tigers in every sense of the word.
Just have a feeling in what has been (for the most part) a very one-sided finals series, that this will be a nail biter. The attacking strength of the Crows vs the team defence of Richmond.
With that being said, these teams only met once during the year with Adelaide smashing the Tigers 140-64 at the Adelaide Oval with Sloane, Jacobs & M Crouch destroying Richmond out of the middle and Tex kicking 5. Crows had winners all over the ground but Richmond picked up a couple of injures during the game and this was 1 of only 2 genuinely bad performances they have put in all year. Also you could argue that Tigers are much better now than what they were back in May.
Positives for Richmond were the job that Grimes did on Betts. Kept in to 1.1 in a game where the ball was often in the Adel forward line. Wonder if they will go with that again? Rance did not play on Tex, instead Andy Otten who played CHF. Astbury played deep on Walker. Will be interesting of they line up the same…
But enough of what has happened, let us look forward to this one. The fact & figures say Adelaide in a close one but I can’t help but get the vibe that this Richmond story is Western Bulldogs 2016 all over again.
Adelaide by 5 points (89-84)
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.65 seems a good play here
Have a small bet on the game going to extra time (i.e. Level at Full Time @ $51). Mathematically speaking, $51 is chronic unders but have a feeling this one is going down to the wire.
The line set (currently 172.5) seems about right. I have predicted a total score of 173 so that explains that.
A bet that TAB are offering is Adel (+20.5) – Rich (+27.5) @ $1.75. The final margin needs to fall between these two. Seems a great price to me!
Even the Adel (+8.5) – Rich (+15.5) @ $3,25 is worth a serious look
If Adelaide are to play they want to and win, you have to have something on Tom Lynch ($15). Crows will have to play a high possession kicking based game and hitting up Lynch between the 50’s will be crucial to that.
The Crouch brothers are in amazing form. Lean slightly to Matt ($6.50) as he is more likely to kick a goal/s and therefore get more noticed. Also, people love stats and he is capable of getting 35+ possessions
Rory Sloane ($6.50) again is an obvious one but his match up against Cotchin ($9) will be epic and will nullify each of them to be BOG in my humble so prepared to risk them both.
Laird ($13) is another one who gets a lot of the footy and he is the Half back version on Tom Lynch (by that I mean the high kicking game will go through him at half back.
While I’m tipping Adel to win, you can’t let Dusty go around without some of your hard earned on @ $4 (very short but understandably so)
From a Richmond perspective, Cotchin @ $9 is great value. Has been amazing all finals series and if the Tigers get up, it will be in a large part due to him.
Rory Atkins is a goal kicking midfielder that if the game opens up could have a 25 possession 3 goal game and at $34 could be a show. Josh Caddy you’d think is the Richmond version of that ($41)
If David Astbury kept Eddie Betts goal less in a low scoring Rich win, you could do worse @ $101
But it does strike you as a game with some individual superstars going around and GAMBLOR would be shocked if one of them didn’t win it so may be not a year to play the roughies.
The value here is with one of the Richmond small forwards. The trick is picking which one. Obviously Betts/Walker/Jenkins are short in the markets.
Andy Otten ($36) is a crazy price for a guy who will play CHF in the high scoring Adel team. especially as McGovern is still in the markets and he won’t play.
Tex Walker @ $5.50
Dusty Martin @ $7.50
Daniel Butler @ $51 seems overs for a guy who’s had at least 3 shots at goal in his last 4 games.
Small bet Otten @ $36 just for the price
First Disposal – Brad Crouch @ $7 (at least you won’t have to wait long to see if you get a win). Richie Douglas ($15)got the 1st disposal vs GWS a few weeks ago despite not starting in the middle so could be a roughie
!st goal scorer – Who knows but thought that Dan Rioli @ $19 seemed a good price.
Fun Multi: Jacobs 40+ hit outs / Crouch Bros 55-60 possessions combined / Trent Cotchin 7+ tackles / Tom Lynch 8+ marks
In conclusion this a game that I don’t have a high level of confidence in but if you’ve followed me through the finals series, hopefully you would have backed both these teams for the flag earlier in the series. Richmond were $9 at the start of September. #value
Thank you to all our readers for the year and GAMBLOR appreciates the feedback he gets as is does take a bit of work to pull together. It’s been a pretty good year on the punt if you have followed us so hopefully you have been enriched financially as well as emotionally. Enjoy GF day! One of the great days of the year and if you’re team is in it, all the best!
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