GAMBLOR – FINALS WEEK TWO

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

ALL HAIL THE ALMIGHTY GAMBLOR!!!!

 

We correctly assessed that the Crows are on a different level to GWS and invested accordingly. Although the Cats started favourite we were very keen on Richmond and while we didn’t see a whole lot of value in the Syd v Ess game, we correctly predicted that it would be the highest scoring final of the week and bet the Total Score OVER accordingly.

 

Lastly but by no means leastly, we save tremendous #value in WCE @ $3.20 and what we predicted would be a close one that could go either way. Well, winning a game after the siren in extra time certainly ticks the “close one” box I’d have thought. Shuey’s true right foot got our best roughie home as well as WCE at the line & Either team < 15.5 to top off an absolute fill-up for our loyal band of followers.

 

Week 2 of finals is traditionally a bumper weekend for betting as typically people over-rate the 5-8 team that have won and write-off the 1-4 team that lost, hence giving us value on the team that finished higher. But the advent of the bye week and the fact that the top 6 was only separated by about 1 game after 23 rounds of footy means that may not the case this year.

 

Let’s have a look…

 

 

Geelong vs Sydney

MCG

Friday Night

 

 

Sydney are not your typical 6th place finisher. They are (at absolute worst) the 3rd best team to make finals this year (only Adel & maybe Rich ahead of them) and they dealt with Essendon (who seemingly were just stoked to be there)accordingly. How on Earth can you bet against them in this form? And it’s deja vu all over again for Geelong as after a strong h&a season, they flatter to deceive in September. These teams ran into each other this time last year and Sydney were way too good then and I see no reason that won’t be the case again.

 

In saying that, I believe Geelong will be better than what they showed against Richmond. Not sure they got their selection right on Friday night. Menzel will come back, Danger was uncharacteristically poor with his disposal and Joel Selwood will be better for the run but where else does the improvement come from? Hawkins needs to be the dominant self we see from time to time but good luck against Rampe, Grundy & Co.

 

But again I feat it will be the bottom 6 for Geelong that DangerWood & Co.  seemingly are able to carry through the season, will fall short yet again in September.

 

From a punting perspective, the only value is the line betting. If you are the belief that Sydney will keep going on their merry way, the line of 3 goals probably won’t slow you down.  I just have a feeling that the Cats will be more competitive this time around which makes me wary about having a massive go at that.

 

 

Sydney by 25 points (94-69)

 

Bets In Order of confidence

 

Syd at the line (-17.5) @ $1.91

Syd 1-39 @ $2.05

Syd 1-24 @ $3.25 (#value)

 

 

 

GWS vs WCE

Spotless Stadium

Saturday Night

 

 

This game is a classic case of the Finals Week 2 over-reaction that has made GAMBLOR so much money over the journey. GWS were poor for the most part of Thursday night and lose Cameron & Mumford for this week’s clash with WCE. But are they that bad they will lose to a WCE side that somehow beat Port Adelaide with the last kick in extra, playing them at Spotless? Maybe they are. I think that the outs to Cameron & Mummy rather then being solely a negative, give the Giants a chance to shake things up as it would be fair to say, if they continue like this, they may win this week but that would be as far as they go.

 

I hope they don’t bring Dawson Simpson as a straight swap for Mummy. Would love to see Lobb go as No.1 ruck and bring Stevie J & Devon Smith into the team. Go small(er). You keep hearing that Lobb is the long term replacement in the ruck. Let’s see it! Surely he can handle Vardy/Petrie. Also with Smith & Stevie J playing, that should add some additional frontal pressure, something that all the successful teams in September to date have had and something they sadly lacked again the Crows.

 

Also, if the Giants plan on bombing it long into F50, McGovern and Co. will lap it up. They will need to lower their eyes and hit up leading targets to stretch that organised WCE defence. Playing smaller will force them to do that. A lot of “ifs and buts” for a team that are short favourites, I know…

 

Meanwhile for West Coast, where does their improvement from last week come from?  Even if Nic Nat is borderline fit, you can’t drop Vardy or Petire after the collective job they did on All Australian ruckman Ryder on the weekend. All of the more highly rated Eagles players all had very good games against Port (McGovern, Shuey, Priddis, Mitchell, Kennedy). Can you rely on them to back it up for 2 finals in a row when they haven’t been able to back it up for 2 games in a row all year? I can’t and that’s why I am erring to the Giants but with no great level of confidence.

 

From a betting perspective I was expecting GWS to be a much more attractive price (out to $1.45 from $1.38 at time of publication) so again, as it stands there is little value to be had.

 

I get the feeling that the Eagles played their grand final on the weekend and have spent all their tickets (and ridden all their luck). Although I did say that about the Bulldogs on no fewer than 3 occasions last September.

 

 

GWS by 26 points (98-72)

 

Bets in order of confidence

 

GWS at the line (-16.5) @ $2.00

GWS 1-39 @ $2.05

 

Multi

 

Syd at the line (-17.5) / GWS at the line (-16.5) @ $3.80

 

GAMBLOR will attempt to update his friend’s twitter account @SPiercePatrick with some fun goals/disposal bets before each game so keep an eye out there.

 

 

Yours In Punting

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