GAMBLOR – WEEK 1 FINALS

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GAMBLOR is pumped for his favourite weekend of the year. Week 1 of finals is the best but is annoyed he had to wait an extra week for it #LoseTheBye

Let’s see if we can make some money…

 

Adelaide vs GWS

Thursday Night

Adelaide Oval

 

 

Adelaide are deserved of their minor premiership and head into September as rightful favourites for the flag albeit in a year with no absolute clear standout. They are hitting September pretty much at 100% with few injuries (at time of publication). Not concerned about the recent loss to WCE as they had nothing to play for there.  GWS are also at a stage where their injury list is at a season low but just haven’t had the continuity the Crows have had. Undoubtedly the Giants have the ability to beat anyone on their day, but I’m not getting the price to take that risk. They are priced very much on potential rather than actual output. And they were very disappointing in Geelong against Cats last round. Also, I never like to see a team head into September unaware as to what is their best 22. I fear this is the case with GWS. Happy to ride with the Crows and hopefully may even get a better price later in the week.

 

Adelaide by 27 points (103-78)

 

Adelaide by > 15.5 @ $1.95

Adel by > 25.5 @ $2.55

Adelaide H2H @ $1.55 (Strong Bet)

 

 

 

Geelong vs Richmond

Friday Night

MCG

 

To say this is going to be huge is a substantial under-statement. Rarely does the MCG sell out but tickets evaporated when they first went on sale. Both these sides hit September in great knick and if both Joel Selwood & Dion Prestia play also are pretty much full strength.

 

GAMBLOR has under rated the Cats this year. You could argue their last month has been there best footy in 2 years +. Multiple contributors is something that hasn’t been synonymous with the “DangerWood Cats” but others have stepped up big time in the absence of Joel. Menegola, Selwood the younger, Duncan & even Harry Taylor up forward has been huge.  However with the being said, I worry greatly about their bottom 6 and the impact they can have in a big final.

 

The Tigers are also travelling very nicely and seem to have worked out their balance with the rucks with Nank back to being the main and solitary man. Not sure they were getting the best out of him while Soldo was in the team but it might have been the rest he needed heading into finals. While there are critics out there concerned about Richmond’s lack of tall forwards, I believe this can be their strength not only against Geelong but all finals series.

 

The Cats in particular have a very solid defence but it’s based heavily upon zonal structure& intercept marking. The unpredictability & pace of the Tigers small forward line will cause headaches and as long as the Tigers mids don’t just bomb it inside 50, they should get some joy.

 

The forecast for Melbourne for Friday is for a MAXIMUM of 12 and rain so this is not going to be pretty but again lends itself to a night for the small forwards of Richmond. There is a lot of 2016 Western Bulldogs about this Richmond side and I reckon they can get the job done.

 

And I haven’t even mentioned watching the two best players in the comp up against each other. Looking forward to this.

 

Richmond by 13 points (92-79)

 

Richmond 1-39 @ $2.65 (great price compared to H2H as wet conditions minimising the chances of a 40+ blowout)

Richmond H2H @ $2.15

Richmond at the line (+5.5) @ $1.91

 

 

 

Sydney vs Essendon

SCG

Saturday Twilight

 

Sydney head into this very warm favourites and rightfully so as you could argue, post Round 6, they are the best team in the land. All their guns are firing with Buddy in particular looking as though he is going to grab this finals series firmly by its testicles. Essendon are the biggest X Factor in the 8 and by some margin. As mentioned in previous chapters throughout the year, Essendon’s best is amazing, capable of beating anyone (including nearly Syd at this venue earlier in the year) but they have trouble keeping that standard up.

 

The injury clouds over key Bombers also dents any feeling I get for an upset here, Hurley, Hooker and Fantasia at best, will play under done. Not ideal.

 

Will be going the obvious here but there is no value to be had. If the line gets out to 40+ I’d entertain a Bombers bet but…

 

Sydney by 33 points (107-74)

 

 

Total Score OVER 168.5 @ $1.91

 

 

Port Adelaide vs WCE

Saturday Night

Adelaide Oval

 

This is the game GAMBLOR had the most trouble with. Both teams have been hot & cold at various stages. Port look great…until they run into top 8 opposition and get caught short. Really short on a couple of occasions. Meanwhile just when you are ready to sink the boots into WCE saying they are gone and need to rebuild, they pop up and win a game or two in great style and suck you in to thinking the eagles of 2015 are back!

 

While if you forced me into a tip here, I’d probably say Port, the bookies have this wrong I feel. Port have not done enough for me to giving a 3 goal start to a top 8 side. Not with their record against the better sides. Also add that the eagles have an outstanding record in Adelaide which is an oddity for a team that cop a lot of stick for not travelling well.

 

What keeps swaying me in favour of Port is the Ryder factor. He has been dominant against teams that don’t have an A Grade ruckmen and on the assumption that Nic Nat doesn’t play (surely he doesn’t play…but how awesome would it be…especially as a late change just before kick-off) Vardy & Co will be no match. That gives Gray, Wines etc.. first use in the middle and as a result, makes the power very hard to stop.

 

The #value for WCE keeps drawing me in but common sense is saying Port…

 

Port by 7 points (87-80)

 

WCE at the line (+17.5) @ $1.91

Either side < 15,5 @ $2.65

WCE H2H @ $3.20 (can’t resist a nibble at that price)

 

 

Best Bet

 

Adelaide by > 15.5 @ $1.91

 

Best Value

 

Richmond 1-39 @ $2.65

 

Best Roughie

 

WCE H2H @ $3.20

 

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