GAMBLOR fell for the Saints on the weekend. Got sucked in by the value. Just because a team is a good price, or better than you thought they should be it doesn’t mean they are morals. Got way too carried away with St Kilda and they were poor. Thought for a little while they were at least going to cover our line bets but they couldn’t even do that!
We nailed the other game we were pretty confident in, which was Port v Coll (Predicted Score 102-79 / Actual 98-71) so got some back there. Other that saluted included:
* WCE 1-39
* The traditional Brisbane home game OVER total score bet saluted. That has been the gift that kept on giving all year. Thank you Brisbane for your high scoring, no defence style of play. It has been truly profitable.
* North at the line….JUST Line = 27+5. Lost by 27.
* Geelong at the line
Going back over history (as opposed to moving forward to history) I note that in one of the last few rounds there has been plenty of upsets. Lots of teams battling for spots in the finals slipping up late. This could be that round and as such, this will be a round where we will be investing less, but (hopefully) finding some big priced winners.
Adelaide vs Sydney
In a time of year where there are junk games aplenty, this looks like a dead set ripper! The two in form teams of the competition meet here in a game that will be a dress rehearsal for a least a prelim if not the GF. Crows have been the best team all year and are fully deserving of the No1 ladder position but Sydney are playing awesome footy of late. Leaning slightly to the Swans at the value but can’t wait to watch this one. Also, the long term weather forecast is for ordinary weather (possible hail) so expect a lower scoring affair, something that also aides the Swans.
Sydney by 9 points (87-78)
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.75 seems a good price
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide
The Doggies were brought back down to Earth with a thud thanks to GWS while Port did enough to shrug off a gallant Collingwood at home. You naturally lean towards the Bulldogs seeing as it is not being played in Adelaide but other than that, you don’t really have a convincing argument. Dogs are out of the 8 which means Port will be ultra-competitive. Can’t really trust either team so not a game I’ll be getting too involved in. Again, weather in Ballarat (as always) looks ordinary so a low scoring affair awaits…
Both sides undefeated at the venue (#LOL)
Port by 3 points (82-79)
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.55. Normally this is a “cop-out” bet but with the weather forecast, seems a good play
Total score UNDER 169.5 @ $1.91
If Port get to 2.10+ back them H2H also (current best $1.98)
Collingwood vs Geelong
Cats were fantastic last week in beating a genuine top 4 team sans J Selwood, Hawkins & Duncan, arguably 3 of Geelong’s best 5 players (Dangerfield being the other 2) but as has been publicised, their record against lower placed teams isn’t flash. Pies are a show here but there is absolutely no value in the current market .They are going okay and certainly haven’t shown sign of packing up for 2017…yet.
Geelong by 11 points (99-88)
No Bet. Would want $3 before looking at the Pies and not interested in the shorts about Geelong
GWS vs West Coast
The Giants were quite impressive in dispatching the Bulldogs in the 2nd half on Friday night but can we read much into that form? Maybe the Doggies aren’t that great? The Eagles went through the motions on Saturday night and when the Blues gave them a scare, fought them off handy enough. Not exactly A Grade form either I suppose… Just have a feeling that this will be closer than a lot of people think.
GWS by 7 points (96-89)
WCE at the line (+29.5) @ $1.91
WCE H2H @ $4.25 (small bet)
WCE by 1-39 @ $4.35
Gold Coast vs Essendon
Everyone tipping the Bombers here without too much thought as they have something to play for and GC don’t but footy doesn’t work like that but I must admit I was hoping to see a touch better than $3 about GC. Not a game I’m keen to get too involved with.
Essendon by 13 points (96-83)
If you are gagging to gamble here, Zac Merrett to get 40+ @ $13 is #value as GC don’t tag
Carlton vs Hawthorn
The Blues after looking like they were fading out in 2017 has really lifted in the last fortnight and played some pretty exciting if ultimately unsuccessful footy and at the silly price are a huge show to break one of the longest winning streaks in the AFL. Just get the vibe Carlton have another win in them and I’m backing it won’t be next week against the Swans. Hawks have zero to play for and will be building up for a big Hodge/Gibson farewell next week so could be susceptible. And it’s not like they are anything tremendous in 2017.
Carlton by 7 points (89-82).
Carlton H2H @ $3.65
Carlton at the line (+23.5) @ $1.91
Carlton by 1-39 @ $4.25
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Sunday Early Afternoon
This has all the hallmarks of being an awful viewing experience. Thought Melbourne were good for a half against the Saints but that form line has to be questions as they were weak as p1ss (talking thru my kick) so I am not completely sold on them. I am sold enough on them that they won’t slip up here.
Melbourne by 29 points (99-70)
Melbourne by 1-39 @ $2.50
Brisbane at the line (+41.5) @ $1.91
St Kilda vs North Melbourne
Saints will no doubt play with a confidence and freedom that will have them touted as the best side out of the 8. Please! They have had their chances throughout the year and have proven they are not good enough. North are playing with the freedom and inconsistency of a young team with shackles removed. Anticipating a shoot out here under the roof.
St Kilda by 27 (116-89)
Total Score OVER 185.5 @ $1.91
Fremantle vs Richmond
As GAMBLOR checked the early prices for this round, I was stunned to see Richmond out up @ $1.48 against Freo in Perth. I hastily googled whether Dusty was being rested or Richmond were only travelling with 15 players. Surely they are a $1.20 pop! A top 4 team against a Freo side who are dead set mailing in their efforts. GAMBLOR has unleashed (price may now be gone though.. #SorryNotSorry) and he recommends you do likewise. Let’s not over think this.
Richmond by 37 points (98-61)
Richmond H2H @ $1.48 – BANG!
Richmond at the line (-23.5) @ $1.91
Richmond by 40+ @ $3.55
Richmond H2H @ $1.48
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide – Total score UNDER 169.5 @ $1.91
Best Of The Rest
Carlton at the line (+23.5) @ $1.91
Carlton 1-39 @ $4.25
WCE 1-39 @ $4.35
Yours In Punting