GAMBLOR – ROUND 21

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

Round 20 was yet another profitable one for GAMBLOR followers with Best Bet Richmond never looking in any doubt and actually got out to $1.85 at one stage late in the week. We benefited from the footy community under-rating a genuine top 4 team playing against a 10-12 ranked team (who to be fair were having a very good month). A luxury rarely afforded this late in the year but we will take it. Just a little filthy they took the foot off the pedal a touch late as the 40+ @ $6.50 would have been amazing!

 

Other bets that landed were the traditional Total Score UNDER bet for a night game in Perth & the Total Score OVER bet in Brisbane home games (80% of the time, it lands every time). Also,

 

  • GWS 1-39 = BANG
  • Total Score UNDER Carl vs Ess = BANG
  • Collingwood to score 100+ = BANG
  • St K vs WCE Either Team < 15.5 = BANG (Correctly predicted exact margin and almost exact score for both sides)

 

So it’s fair to say that GAMBLOR had a good week but that is history and the weekend is a mystery so let’s get stuck in and find more winners!!!

 

 

Western Bulldogs vs GWS

Docklands

Friday Night

 

The Doggies took their sweet time but got over the line against the Lions in Brisbane and have a nice little run going, albeit they haven’t beaten much in that run. GWS meanwhile are slowly building and were very impressive again fellow finalists Melbourne on the weekend. However, there inability to get anywhere neat there best 22 on the field continues as Mummy is rubbed out and (at time of publication) there will be no Cameron or Patton. Am keen on the Doggies at the price but no super confident. Should be a ripper to watch.

 

Bulldogs by 7 points (98-91)

 

Total Score OVER 174.5 @ $1.91

WB H2H @ $2.15

 

 

Sydney vs Fremantle

SCG

Saturday Afternoon

 

Only keen followers of each side & fantasy footy addicts will be paying any attention to this one. Sydney will win by pretty much how ever much they want to. If they could let me know exactly how much, that would be greatly appreciated.

 

Sydney by 47 points (106-59)

 

Total Points UNDER 174.5 @ $1.91 if you need something to get you through the afternoon

 

 

Geelong vs Richmond

Kardinia Park

Saturday Afternoon

 

The Tigers were very good to us on the weekend but face tougher opponents at an unfavorable venue and am offered a shorter price. Sure the Cats have been ravaged by injury & suspension but as much as Gamblor likes the Tigers as a side in 2017, he ain’t about to leap head first into $1.60 about them here. Not saying they can’t/won’t win, but there is no #value. Cats lose plenty but get back Dangerfield who is the reason they are any good and don;t let anyone tell you otherwise. Looking forward to watching this one but won’t be investing too much.

 

Richmond by 3 points (93-90)

 

Geelong at the line (+6.5) @ $1.91 (just can’t see Geel losing two in a row at home…)

 

 

Brisbane vs Gold Coast

GABBA

Saturday Twilight

 

No Ablett. No Lynch. No Witts. No Hall. No Eade. NO INTEREST! If you take $1.65 or less about Brisbane doing anything let alone winning an AFL game, you are a braver man than I. I dare anyone to watch this game from beginning to end. Now that’s not to say we can’t make money here…

 

Brisbane by 21 points (111-90)

 

Total Score OVER 191.5 @ $1.91 (Love the OVER bet in Brisbane games but I must admit this one makes me a touch nervous. But we’ve made that much on it over the year, I’m prepared to ride the wave)

 

 

 

Essendon vs Adelaide

Docklands

Saturday Night

 

I preface what I’m about to say but stating I have no statistical data to back up what I’m about to say…..but I just get a feeling that the Bombers are going to be super competitive here. They are one of the few teams that can match the Crows offensively although the injury to BT’s Orazio dents that feeling somewhat. I have in the back of my head that teams back up poorly from Showdowns too (but I may have just made that up to convince myself that Ess may go okay here). Expecting a high-octane shoot out and if the stars align for the Bombers, an upset may happen… Or of course, maybe the flaccid effort against the weakening Blues last weekend was a sign that they too are hitting the wall… Sold yet? Neither am I…

 

Adelaide by 9 points (111-102)

 

Essendon at the line (+22.5) @ $1.91 (hoping the line was bigger).

Either side by < 15.5 points @ $3

Essendon H2H @ $3 (small bet and not the value anticipated)

Adelaide to score 100+ pts @ $1.80

 

 

West Coast vs Carlton

Subiaco

Saturday Night

 

Blues were back to their super brave best last weekend in narrowly going down to the Bombers but not sure they can duplicate that in Perth this week. The Eagles yet again stole defeat from teh clutches of victory on Sunday and will be hell bent on revenge. And Lord knows how these Eagles love to feast on a bottom 4 teams that have run out of juice. The snow coverage is solid and all runs are open at Mt Subiaco. Whoooosh. Perfect conditions for downhill skiers. But in all seriousness, the epitaphs written on WCE during the week were a touch premature as a big win here and a few results going there way elsewhere, and they are right back in it. Lose this however, and……

 

West Coast by 34 points (93-59)

 

Total Score UNDER 161.5 @ $1.91 (Bookies have cottoned on finally to the low scores at Subi night games. Was hoping for better so tread warily here)

WCE 1-39 @ $2.20

 

 

Melbourne vs St Kilda

MCG

Sunday Early Afternoon

 

Was worried that with the Saints wining on the weekend, that may cut my odds for this game but there is still plenty of #value about the Saints around. Honestly think there is very little between these two sides. Dees won Round 1 and the Saints were GONE and the Dees were AMAZING. And so it played out for a bit but the gap has closed somewhat and with Hogan missing for the Dees, I err to the value. Dees since Round 13 have only beaten a poor Port at home and Carlton by 8 points. Not exactly cracking form. Last chance for the Saints though. They lose this, they don’t belong in September. Simple as that.

 

St Kilda by 17 points (96-79)

 

St Kilda at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91

St Kilda H2H @ $2.35

St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.90

St Kilda by > 15.5 pts @ $3.75 (#value)

St Kilda by 40+ @ $10 (not the worst at the price)

 

 

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne

Hobart

Sunday Afternoon

 

A game that I must admit I’m finding huge trouble getting my head around or any real feel for. Hawks without Hodge were there for the taking last week but weren’t blown out of the water. Kangas were the 2nd best team in the worst game of the year which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of them.  Kangas do go well in Hobart and Hawthorn are a similar price to what they’d be a few years ago when they were a power house. Think North area value play here but the Hawks experience will see them home…

 

Hawthorn by 10 points (101-91)

 

North at the line (+27.5) @ $1.91

North H2H @ $4.30 (silly odds. Must have a small bit on)

 

 

 

Port Adelaide vs Collingwood

Adelaide Oval

Sunday Twilight

 

My goodness gracious me Port stunk on Sunday night. Beaten by 84 points and can consider themselves lucky that it wasn’t more. But they are not playing a team in the top 8 here so they are sweet :) The Pies are going okay I suppose…. You get the feeling the Pies will be competitive for long periods but Port will find a way at home to get the chocolates. We can have a play here I reckon as think that as poor as the Power were, they are a better side than Collingwood but again, there is no real #value

 

Port by 23 points (102-79)

 

Port 1 -39 @ $2.15

Port by > 15.5 @ $1.70

 

 

 

Best Bet

 

St Kilda at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91

 

 

Best Of The Rest

 

St Kilda H2H @ $2.35

Port by > 15.5 @ $1.70

 

 

 
Best Roughie

 

Essendon H2H @ $3

St Kilda by 40+ @ $10

 

 

H2H Multi

 

Syd / WCE / St K / Port @ $4

 

 

 

Yours In Punting…

 

 

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