GAMBLOR – Round 19

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

A mixed week for GAMBLOR with the Best Bet going down for the 1st time since our return in 2017 (GWS weak as P1ss) but we had plenty of others saluting including Adelaide, North Melbourne (At the line), Melbourne (great result @ $2.25), WB 40+ @ $3 & Brisbane @ $2.55 early in the week was wonderful as they started $2 and duly saluted.

 

I’m not going to lie, this week from a punting / value perspective is YUCK!!!! So divide your usual investments by 4 for this week but we will see how we go…

 

 

Hawthorn vs Sydney

SCG

Friday Night

 

There is a team that pop up every year that don’t really ever look like making finals but are playing good enough footy to make it and they are the teams that invariably “shape the 8”. Hawthorn are the 2017 version and are the last team to knock off the all-conquering Swans. The 1st of nine games that GAMBLOR is “loathed to get too involved in” but it would be a brave man to bet against the Swans and at around

 

 

Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10

Either Side by < 15.5 @ $2.65

 

 

 

North Melbourne vs Melbourne

Hobart

Saturday Afternoon

 

I thought (for ¾ at least) that the Kangas were going do the right things by GAMBLOR followers and get up at a massive price but they ran out of juice and only just held on for our line bet. They are going okay, playing a very attacking brand of footy but like a 50yo man in bed with a beautiful woman, just struggles to keep it up for the whole event. Bookies are keeping them really safe here which is fascinating and deflating at the same time. Thought the Kangas might a cheeky line bet again here but not now. Dees meanwhile with some a grade cattle coming back into the side were always going to be a good bet at home against a Port side who seem incapable of beating anyone above them. They should win here but just have a funny feeling about this one… Weather looks wet for Hobart (shocked I know) so the hopes of a shootout here may be dampened….literally

 

Melbourne by 27 points (98-71)

 

Total Score UNDER 184.5 @ $1.91

 

 

 

 

GWS vs Fremantle

Spotless

Saturday Afternoon

 

 

What a dour affair this promises to be. GWS will be very blue collar here getting BTB (back to basics) after a rough six week stretch while Freo without Walters won’t be exactly the easiest team to watch. GWS will get this done but I won’t watching them doing it. A great late Saturday afternoon to “volunteer” with jobs around the house #PointsInTheBank

 

GWS by 39 points (97-58)

 

GWS by 15.5+ @ $1.26 is so short but cannot miss…..#surely….

 

 

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda

Adelaide Oval

Saturday Twilight

 

This is the game that I feel may be a touch closer than most expect but while we have made some money out of the Saints in recent times, they are a flighty lot and hard to get a handle on. Also looking likely to be missing Reivoldt & Montagna which dents the aforementioned confidence. Power are without Wingard too and I rate these teams around same 6-10 bracket which traditionally doesn’t have a lot separating them so while I’ll be tipping Port, the #value lie with the Saints in a weekend bereft of #value…

 

Port by 11 points (99-88)

 

St Kilda at the line (+30.5) @ $1.91

St Kilda H2H @ $4.15 (small wager only)

 

 

Gold Coast vs Richmond

Cararra

Saturday Night

 

This is Gary Ablett’s weekend shifted on so the fact that he will play will assist GC greatly but that fade out against the Doggies in Cairns rang alarm bells. I fear the Suns may mail in their efforts until years end.  Richmond meanwhile, have yet another terrific win to validate their top 4 spot. You cannot in good conscious put any hard earned on the Suns but despite Richmond showing their credentials over the entire season, you get nervous about them playing the Suns. Hi Karmichael. Harvey Norman here. No interest.

 

Richmond by 33 points (106-73)

 

Richmond by 15+ @ $1.38

Richmond by 1-39 @ $2.30 and hope the Suns show more late this week…

 

 

Carlton vs Geelong

Docklands

Saturday Night

 

The Blues were ripe for the picking on the weekend, Brisbane jumped them and that was pretty much it. Cats ran into a Crows side that are on another level currently so name shame in dropping that. Just get a vibe that the Cats might rest a few here (maybe Danger, you heard it here first). Cats to win but the Blues as they have all year, will keep the score in hand without really looking a threat.

 

Geelong by 21 points (97-76)

 

Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20

Carlton (+35.5) @ $1.70

 

Wstern Bulldogs vs Essendon

Docklands

Sunday Early Afternoon

 

This is clearly match of the round or as I like to call it “The Best Of A Bad Lot” with the Doggies slowly but surely finding their way, albeit against weaker opposition, while the Bombers took ¾ to warm up against the Kangas before getting the job done and cementing themselves as genuine final contenders. As mentioned pretty much every week, I find the Bombers the hardest to predict, hence cannot bet either way with any confidence. Leaning towards the Doggies but fear I’m getting sucked in by 2 wins against bottom 4 teams…

 

Bulldogs by 5 points (93-88)

 

WB H2H @ $2.00

 

 

Collingwood vs Adelaide

MCG

Sunday Afternoon

 

Let’s not kid ourselves, as nice as it was for Pies fans for the boys to get up, they dead set nicked that one from WCE and were 2nd best for most of the day. Add to the injuries to Varcoe & Moore and they will up against it here against a Crows team who seemed destined for greatness in 2017. Can’t see the Pies getting close here I’m afraid

 

Adelaide by 39 points (111-72)

 

 

Adelaide by 15+ @ $1.75

Adelaide by 25+ @ $2.10 seems a great price

Adelaide by 40+ @ $3.15 is #value

 

 

West Coast vs Brisbane

Subiaco

Sunday Twilight

 

Thank goodness for the 24 point payout special or else I would be as unhappy as many WCE supporters are currently with the last quarter fade out. But from a form line perspective, people forget that for 3 ½ quarters they were the better side and actually played some reasonable footy. The return home to face a Brisbane side who are up and about after their big win against the Blues (God Bless ‘Em). Fair to say the Lions will find it tough to back that effort up and will get a touch up here.

 

WCE by 67 points (137-70)

Total Score OVER 193.5 @ $1.91

WCE by 40+ @ $1.72

WCE by 60+ @ $2.25

 

 

Best Bet

 

Adel by > 15.5 @ $1.75

 

 

Best Of The Rest

 

WCE by > 39.5 @ $1.75

WCE vs Bris – Total Score OVER 193.5 @ $1.91

 

 
Best Roughie

 

Adel by 60+ @ $3.15

St K H2H @ $4.15

 

H2H Multi

 

GWS / Rich / WB / Adel / WCE @ $6.50

This bet looks fine but you just know one of them will stuff up…

 

 

 

Yours In Punting…

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