Another week down. Another collect from GAMBLOR. For the 3rd consecutive week, the Best Bet has saluted with Sydney getting the job done against the more fancied GWS. A great result for early punters who got the $2.18 as they started $1.77. We narrowly missed the line best on Geelong & Richmond but our four leg multi saluted for the 2nd week in a row, paying $5.
And again, followers of this article would have had their weekly collect on the Total Score OVER bet in the Brisbane game. Gets home practically every week…but in saying that, this might be the week to give it a miss…
That and other gems in the weeks edition…
Adelaide vs Geelong
Selection night will tell us a bit here with Crows guns Sloane & Lever likely to miss while it would be surprising to see Dangerfield make the trip after recovering from an apparent near-death experience last week against Hawthorn. Cats have a great record against the Crows (i.e. They leave a sweeper in D5o so Jenkins etc.. don’t run into open goals) and while its a game I will watching to enjoy rather than make money, the cats could be a big show but I’ll be steering clear .
Adelaide by17 points (103-86)
Adelaide by 1-39 @ $2.25 (if you absolutely have to invest)
Essendon vs North Melbourne
My punting rule with Essendon has been when favourites, lay and when underdogs back and that paid dividends on the weekend as the Dons gave the previously flying Saints a spanking. Now that they are short priced favourites against a S.T.Ruggling Kangas, I reckon they are susceptible. I know the Kangas aren’t great and were never in the hunt last week in Adelaide against Port, but back at Dockland, against a team set up very similarly to them (i.e. potent key fowards, solid defence and unspectacular midfield) they are a sneaky chance. Won;t go so far as to pick them but this will be significantly closer than most think based on the Bombers yo-yo season.
Essendon by 7 points (98-91)
North at the line (+30.5) @ $1.91 – Was actually hoping the line would be bigger than this
North H2H @ $4.25 (smaller bet)
Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
This is another 50/50 game where who I bet on will depend on where the #value lies. The Dees are starting to get some quality cattle back on the park which mark them infinitely more competitive. Add the fact that Gawn & Hogan are a week fitter and I think at the price are worth a flutter. Both these teams are in the 5-8 bracket so not much separating them but feels the Dees may just have enough to pull this out.
Melbourne by 7 points (89-82)
Melbourne H2H @ $2.25
Melbourne at the line (-6.5) @ $1.91
Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.60
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast
With rumours abounding that Ablett & May will be out for GC, they will be fielding a very inexperienced team here and while the Doggies aren’t exactle back, they could get a hold of the Suns and blow this right out. Bookies think that too so there is no #value in this game at all.
Bulldogs by 51 points (112-61)
WB by 40+ @ $2.90 but missed the $3.50 about this earlier in the week
Fremantle vs Hawthorn
This clash has “stay away” written all over it from a punting perspective (2 bad sides). Freo with a revitalised Fyfe have looked slightly better but on pure form you can’t look past Hawthorn. Again, missed the price here but the Hawks to get the job done in a dour, low scoring affair
Hawthorn by 19 points (81-62)
Total Score UNDER 164.5 @ $1.91
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.25
Sydney vs St Kilda
The Swans are officially on fire and I would be crazy to bet against them, bu feel that the Saints may push them here. If they can get tehir run-and-gun game going they are athreat aginst anyone but as last week showed, are so inconsistant. The confines of the SCG may make it tough for the Saints to do that but will be in thsi for long periods
Sydney by 23 points (97-74)
Sydney by 1-39 @ $2.30 (if you must)
St Kilda at the line (+28.5) @ $1.91 (again, if you must)
Richmond vs GWS
Sunday Early Afternoon
The jury is officially out on the Giants but I actually thought they were pretty good against a white hot Sydney outfit last week. If Lobb grabs a few of those marks the game may have been closer. The Tigers for mine are another 5-8 side while GWS are genuine top 2 so am expecting class to show out here, but again no value in the market whatsoever.
GWS by 17 points (98-81)
GWS 1-39 @ $2.20
GWS by 15+ @ $2.30
Collingwood vs West Coast
The fact that this game is at Docklands as opposed to MCG is a real game changer for me in that I don’t mind the Eagles at that venue. Also, I’m not a massive fan of Collingwood at Docklands (well, anywhere to be honest). I’ve been sucked in by the Pies on the back of a win too many times. Not this time my feathered friend. IF the Eagles are in any way fair dinkum of finals action, they just MUST win this…doesn’t mean they will of course but….
WCE by 13 points (91-78)
WCE 1-39 @ $2.55
WCE H2H @ 2.05
Total Score UNDER 186.5 @ $1.91
Brisbane vs Carlton
Never one to get too involved in a game between two poor sides but when I saw BET365 put up $2.55 about Brisbane I just couldn’t resist. Thought that was crazy overs for a game which really is a 50/50 contest. Blues have been more consistently competitive but the Lions at their best (especially at home) is better than a Blues side in which injuries are starting to hit. Not super confident but feel the Lions are the #value here.
Lions by 7 points (94-87)
Brisbane H2H @ $2.40 ($2.55 has been gobbled up by your truly)
Brisbane at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91
GWS 1-39 @ $2.20
Best Of The Rest
Brisbane at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91
WCE H2H @ $2.05
WB by 40+ @ $2.90
North H2H @ $4.25
Melb / WB / GWS / WCE / Bris @ $10.50
Yours In Punting…