GAMBLOR – ROUND 17

Posted on Posted in Gamblor

 

 

 

St Kilda vs Essendon

Docklands

Friday Night

 

 

The Bombers (as stated in previous articles) are a very tough team to work out so I tend to stay away when they are favourites and look a little closer when underdogs. Saints are narrow favourites on the back of their last two wins (of which GAMBLOR has benefitted greatly from) but isn’t as keen to leap in here. Saints are undoubtedly both up & about currently but the Dons on their night can beat anyone. Picking the Saints but not unleashing the wallet here

 

St Kilda by 11 points (106-95)

 

Jack Steven to get 40+ touches @$23 is worth a look for fun (SB). If my memory serves me correctly, Steven got 40+ both times this teams played at Docklands last year. The only reason I remember is that I think I backed him one of those times…I know it’s a better Dons team than last year but at the price it’s worth a throw at the stumps and he seems to return to form last week after a lean run.

 

St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.35 (if you must). Not overly keen here

 

 

 

Geelong vs Hawthorn

MCG

Saturday Afternoon

 

 

Cats are quietly becoming the in-form team of the AFL and never broke a sweat in dispatching a Brisbane side that were consistent and determined in their belief to not defend in any way, shape or form. They run into an interesting one here in Hawthorn who has found a game style of that that is effective without being overly easy on the eye. 300 gamer Luke Hodge dominating as QB across half back and to get 6 points out of 8  from consecutive games against the two best teams in the comp is pretty handy form indeed. Keen on the Cats to win but the bookies seem to have this about right so a distinct lack of #vale here…

 

Geelong by 26 points (102-76)

 

Geelong at the line (-12.5) seems a safe go @ $1.91

 

 

Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne

Adelaide Oval

Saturday Afternoon

 

If North can’t beat Freo in Melbourne, I’m not sure how I’m supposed to tip them to beat Port at the Adelaide Oval. Power upset the Eagles in Perth last weekend (GAMBLOR followers weren’t upset though. BANG!) and looked the goods in doing it. They should win this and win it handy enough but am loathe to jump into super short prices / large lines for team that aren’t absolute A grade….

 

Port by 47 points (114-67)

 

Power at the line (-35.5) if you must…

 

 

Gold Coast vs Collingwood

Cararra

Saturday Twilight

 

Now here are two teams that wouldn’t want to have bringing you home in the last leg of a multi or have your last $50 on. Pies are a genuine 5-10 teams while the Suns pick and choose when they perform. The Suns are scheduled to get back GAJ, Hall, Rischatelli & Hanley which you’d think would make them rightful favourites but how can you leap into them with any confidence whatsoever. Pies actually have a pretty good record on the road for a team that allegedly rarely travel but this Pies outfit seem to have lost their mojo. Again, not a game I want to get too involved in.

 

Gold Coast by 11 points (98-87)

 

GC 1-39 @ $2.40 seems about thr right price but tread warily…

 

 

GWS vs Sydney

Spotless

Saturday Night

 

Now this is a game that captures the imagination a touch more. This should be a ripper! Must admit GAMBOR was very surprised to see the Giants a clear favourite in early markets. They have struggled of late, having amazingly drawn their last two games against weakened opposition. Here they run into a Swans side at the peak of their powers, keen to extract revenge for being touched up earlier in the year. And there were bookies offering me $2.18 about the Swans! GAMBLOR said “yes please My Bookmaker” and the best you can get now is around $2.05 (at time of publication). Sure the Giants will get back Greene, Williams and maybe one other but the Swans get back JPK and the they have benefited enormously of late from having a settled line up for the 1st time all year. While the price is gone now, I still think there is value to be had and in what will be close one, the Swans are the undoubted #value…

 

Sydney by 9 points (94-87)

 

Swans H2H @ $2.05 (Filthy you’ve missed the $2.18)

Swans 1-39 @ $2.60

Sydney by > 15.5 @ $3.35 (small bet)

 

 

Melbourne vs Adelaide

Darwin

Saturday Night

 

 

Dees did what they had to against a plucky Blues on Sunday. A particularly good effort considering the cattle they were missing and they were headed several times. They will hopefully get watts & Tyson back but still no Nate Jones hurts. The Crows meanwhile, turned up the power in the 2nd half against a Doggie side that have lot the plot. Not sure what the Darwin factor plays here other than it will probably be relatively low scoring (for a Crows game). Hard to tip against the Crows but won’t be leaping into anything here.

 

Adelaide by 23 points (100-77)

 

Maybe a small bet on the UNDER 184.5 Total Points and hope its slippery as hell up there like it normally is under lights.

 

 

 

Richmond vs Brisbane

Docklands

Sunday Early Afternoon

 

 

As previously stated in this and many other articles over the journey, GAMBLOR is loath to leap into short prices about teams that aren’t absolute elite, but gee whiz I feel that Richmond on the rebound against a Lions team on the road that have just about hit the wall could be the exception. The Tigers are a 5-8 in my humble so there earlier results flattered them a touch but they are not as bad as what they showed last week. They will bounce back here. As previously stated, we love to back the Total Score OVER in Brisbane games. They just don’t defend at all! Always good to score between 70-90 and get beaten so the oppositions will always score 100+.. Watch this be a 61-42 “shoot-out” now after me saying this….

 

Richmond by 71 points (133-70)

 

Richmond at the line (-37.5) @ $1.91 seems safe enough

Richmond by 40+ @ $2

Richmond by 60+ @ $3.50 (great value)

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton

MCG

Sunday Afternoon

 

 

This game has the exact feeling that Carlton’s game last week against Melbourne had. It looks like a great opportunity for the Blues but you fear they may just fall short. Hard to derive any confidence from the Doggies though as they were flaccid in that 2nd half against the Crows. They are running out of chances to “get their season back on track” and if they can’t win this, I can’t see them playing any role in September. The loss of Cripps for the Blues is huge as depth is not a strength for them, but I’m not exactly aroused at the thought of putting my hard-earned on the Doggies at this stage.

 

Western Bulldogs by 11 points (84-73)

 

No Bet. Bookies have this about right…

 

 

 

Fremantle vs West Coast

Subiaco

Sunday Twilight

 

 

The Eagles looked good….for 3 quarters then got smashed by the Power on their own dung-heap which isn’t a great sign. The Dockers somehow found a way against a team that have completely forgotten how to win in North Melbourne. Pretty keen that WCE will turn it around but the only things that scares me was the return to form of Fyfe. He is good enough at his best to turn this game right around himself but the return of JJK (who is a cheeky bet @ $11 for the Coleman) should be enough to get them home in the Derby.

 

West Coast by 25 points (108-83)

 

WCE by 1-39 @ $2.05 if you’re keen to get involved

 

 

 

 

 

Best Bet

 

Sydney H2H @ $2.18

 

Best Of The Rest

 

Richmond at the line (-36.5) @ $1.91

Geelong at the line (-12.5) @ $1.91

 

Best Roughie

 

Richmond by 60+ @ $3.50

 

H2H Multi

 

Geel / Syd / Rich / WCE @ $5

 

 

 

Yours In Punting…

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