It would be fair to say that GAMBLOR returned from his self-imposed exile with a massive BANG! We absolutely nailed Round 15 with Best Bets Sydney & St Kilda saluting and Best Roughie Richmond getting home @ around $3.50. The trick was to stay away from potential dodgy games (WB v WCE, Coll v Haw) and focused on the right ones.
We will be attacking this week and the rest of the season that way. Find the right games and the right prices and SMASH THEM!
I’m pumped! Let’s get into Round 16
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
The Crows were workmanlike at best against a plucky Blues side but (as I said about Richmond last week) there shouldn’t be a negative connotation associated with that. But the Crows are going through a bit of a flat patch yet still getting results which is what this time of the year is all about. No point playing your best footy now, just keep collecting 4 points a week. The Doggies are a side that I just cannot work out. All the ingredients are there but we end up with burnt toast! Weren’t keen on them last week @ $1.40 but @ $3.40 with their season on the line, it is a slightly different conversation.…
I know this will read oddly but this could be a big upset and the Doggies fight back yet again from adversity. Or they could get beaten by 10+ goals and the wheels could completely fall off. In a funny, way neither would surprise, hence little interest from an investment perspective…
Forecast is wet through Friday but to clear up at night so it will be a messy one. May keep it tight which bring the Doggies line bet into play….
Adelaide by 9 points (91-82)
WB at the line (+24.5) @ $1.91 if you must…
Hawthorn vs GWS
Giants are really toiling through this time of year with the lack of manpower really starting to catch up with them. It’s brought them right back to the field as was shown at home last week against an under-manned Cats side. The Hawks meanwhile were seemingly the least worst side against the Pies on Sunday so I’m not as aroused by them as some are. Calls of “They’re Back!” are seriously misguided. Conditions are cold but clear in Tassie so I reckon the Giants will be able to do what the Crows & Pies couldn’t in the last fortnight and break the game open and gut the running game going. If that happens, not only will be Giants win, they could win handsomely…
GWS by 27 points (107-80)
Giants at the line (-15.5) seems a pretty solid bet @ $1.83
Collingwood vs Essendon
I dare anyone to invest with any level of confidence in this one. The Bombers are the most hold/cold team in recent memory while the Pies are lukewarm at best. And no one likes their pies lukewarm…Bombers will be somewhat chastened after their flaccid last term against Brisbane while the Pies are due a rousing win that will suck the media in to thinking they have turned it around. Leaning towards the Bombers but only for footy tipping purposes, not for any investment options.
Essendon by 7 points (91-84)
Sydney vs Gold Coast
Once they started kicking straight the Swans took care of business (God Bless Them) against an injury ravaged and tired Dees outfit on Friday night. They really are starting to build nicely. The Suns were good enough against North at home but tend to struggle on the road. Not sure the Suns will get the room at the SCG to spread the game and use their run-and gun style. Swans should win easily but the bookies tend to agree, hence no value…
Swans by 43 points (112-69)
Brisbane vs Geelong
Finding it very hard to care at all about this one. Lions were terrific against a Bombers team that has forgotten how to win while the Cats nearly obtained their best win in years after taking an under-manned team to GWS and performing tremendously. Lions have been okay at home but I would imagine they would find it hard to back up that effort. Cats to win handily enough here and the bookies think likewise so not much of a play here..
Geelong by 49 points (118-69)
Geelong should cover the line (-31.5) @ $1.91
St Kilda vs Richmond
The Saints (eventually) got the job done in Perth against Freo (God Bless Them) and while they weren’t overly impressive, it’s more about getting the result and this could be the start of a bit of a run for St Kilda. Have a healthy list and are due to hit some form. Meanwhile, the Tigers did the right thing by GAMBLOR followers by beating the over-hyped Power in Adelaide. A huge win for their confidence and have to be rated as a top 4 threat. I really don’t think there is a huge difference between the two sides and as such, think the Saints at Docklands are amazing value @ $2.55 and will be investing accordingly.
St Kilda by 15 points (91-76)
St Kilda H2H @ $2.55 (great price)
St Kilda 1-39 @ $3 (Ditto)
St Kilda at the line (+10.5) @ $1.91
North Melbourne vs Fremantle
Sunday Early Afternoon
The Kangas were close enough to Gold Coast without actually ever looking like winning on Saturday night and with word that McMillan & Waite (surprise surprise) are out injured so if you think I am jumping into $1.55 about them against anybody, you are very much mistaken. In saying that I can’t touch Freo. Sandi out and Fyfe not hitting his straps. They need another freak game from Walters you’d think to win and I can’t see lightning striking twice. This game screams “STAY AWAY”!!!
North by 11 points (93-82)
Carlton vs Melbourne
We were right last week in betting against the Dees who have had a tough trot with both the draw & injuries of late and so it played out. They really should have lost by 10 goals +. Now with Viney & Tyson likely to be added to that injury list, I can’t leap into them as favourite against anybody. Especially the Blues who keep finding a way to stay in games for long periods. Was keen on backing the Blues here but the price isn’t as generous as I was hoping. Still think they can knick this but the bet amounts here will be low due to a lack of #value.
Carlton by 7 points (84-77)
Carlton H2H @ $2.40 (small bet)
Carlton at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91 (bigger bet)
West Coast vs Port Adelaide
The Eagles got their season back on track with a gutsy on the road win against the struggling Doggies side on Saturday while the Power yet again failed their test against quality opposition. Feel that the footy public are writing off the Power a bit quickly (after talking them up non-stop beforehand) and if they had a kicked straight, they would have knocked off the Tigers. Eagles are very hot & cold so think that the Power are the value here from a betting perspective. This will go down to the wire I reckon…
Power by 2 points (93-91)
Power H2H @ $2.45 (small bet)
Power at the line (+10.5) @ $1.91 (Bigger Bet)
St Kilda at the line (+9.5) @ $1.91
Best Of The Rest
St Kilda H2H @ $2.55
Power (+10.5) @ $1.91
St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.00
Syd / Geel / St K / Port @ $7.75
WB (+24.5) / GWS >15.5 / Syd >25.5 / St K (+10.5) / Geel >25.5 / Carl (+9.5) / Port (+10.5) @ $54
Yours In Punting…