I know Gamblor has been missing and he apologies profusely but let’s be honest, with the way the footy has been going this year with crazy results etc… Gamblor can’t look you in the eye and say that he would have been dominating even if he had to time to churn out his usual, much loved weekly prognostications.
But enough of the past, Gamblor has locked away some time so we can have a good crack at Round 15 and there are a couple of games (one in particular) that we can attack with vigour.
Let’d do it!!!!
Melbourne vs Sydney
Dees on fire but in my humble they are ripe for the picking here. Yet another 6 day break and coming back from a tough game in Perth and the record of teams on back to back 6 day breaks is poor. Add to that, the fact that their opponents in Sydney seemingly have their mojo back and are up and about after the robbery they committed upon Essendon on Friday night. Forecast is drizzly so expecting a low scoring, fairly dour affair and think the Swans are value (but not as much as they were on Tuesday).
Sydney by 15 points (87-72)
Syndey H2H @ $1.85 (Been backed since I last looked. Were $1.95)
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.40
Total Score UNDER 178.5 @ $1.91
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Two of the toughest teams to work out on season 2017 battle it out here. At their best, both are top 4 material but we haven’t seen that nearly often enough for their supporters liking. Could that scrappy win against the Kangas be the boost they need to kick start their season? You’d like to think so but if you think I’m taking $1.40 about them, you are very much mistaken. A few big outs for the Eagles will hurt but they are actually getting to a very silly price. The record at Docklands isn’t nearly as bad as the MCG either. Not a game I want to be involved in to any great extent. There has been very good money for the Bulldogs early in the week here which has vacuumed any value out of this one from an investment perspective.
Bulldogs by 21 points (101-80)
Carlton vs Adelaide
This is a clash between one of the best, most organised defences versus the best attack in the comp. Crows coming off a loss should be firing for this and should be too good. Blues also showed signs of fatigue against the Tigers (tackles not sticking etc..) so the kids might be running out of puff. Adelaide should cover the line but other than that not keen to play too much here…
Adelaide by 36 points (99-63)
Adelaide at the line (-23.5) @ $1.91 seems a pretty safe play here but write-off the Blues at your peril
Adelaide by > 15.5 @ $1.60 seems a safer play
Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
The Suns head back home to face a North team who are mastering the art of being competitive without winning. Would really like to know if GAJ is playing before getting too involved here. Kangas look due for a win but footy doesn’t really work like that. Both teams like to run and gun and with the weather fine, I am expecting a bit of a shoot-out. If both teams kick straight, they will score 200+ with ease. But if you look at how these teams have been going in from of goal, you wouldn’t be super confident of that happening. Leaning to the Kangas at the vale but again, not a very big play here…
Kangas by 7 (106-99)
Nth Melb H2H @ $2.05 (Small Bet)
Total score OVER 189.5 @ $1.91 (Small Bet)
GWS vs Geelong
The Giants are slowly starting to get bodies back but as soon as I say that they lose young gun Taranto. Haynes was back last week and Kelly will be back this week. Cats are battered & bruised after their gutsy comeback at home but cannot be under-estimated. If Joel Selwood is out, that will make the task very difficult but I can’t this blowing out. Bookies seem to have this one about right
GWS by 17 points (98-81)
GWS 1-39 @ $2.15 is no value but probably the best play
Maybe a small bet on Geel at the line (+21.5) @ $1.91 to cover yourself.
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
The Power looked the real deal at the MCG against the Pies but maybe the Pies are pooh…. Similar to WCE though, when Port have a big win at the NCG, it normally aligns to a pretty successful year ahead. The Tigers did what they had to against the Blues so wouldn’t read too much into that from a negative perspective. I reckon the Power will win but the Tigers are getting out a silly price. Interesting one this….
Port by 11 points (89-78)
Small bet on Richmond H2H @ $3.45
Richmond at the line (+21.5) @ $1.91
Essendon vs Brisbane
Sunday Early Afternoon
This will be a dead-set, old fashioned SHOOT-OUT under the roof at Docklands. Defenders need not rock up as both these teams love to score and score big! Brisbane tend to be the 2nd highest scoring team in most games they play but don’t confuse that for being low scoring themselves. And the Bombers in (kind of) damp conditions at the SCG against an up and about Swans outfit managed to hit the 100+ mark. If I had the time or inclination I would google how many times that has been done in the last 10 years. I’m backing not many so that gives you an indication as to the scoring threat that Essendon carry. I don’t care what the Over/Under total score line is, I’m backing OVER.
Essendon by 49 points (128-79)
Total Score OVER 195.5 @ $1.91
Essendon to be highest scoring team of the round @ $?
Hawthorn vs Collingwood
All the very best to anyone who can work this one out. Hawks were fantastic is unravelling the Crows game-plan but have been inconsistent to say the least. Meanwhile, everyone is desperate to get excited about a Pies revival but they are giving us no reason to be so. Smashed in the midfield last week against Port is a worry as that is where their strength is. Pies to lift for Pendles 250th but can’t think of any other reason to tip anyone here but no value in the market to back them
Collingwood by 11 points (92-81)
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.85 if you absolutely have to….
Fremantle vs St Kilda
I assume Freo being favourites is due to the market believing that both Fyfe & Sandi will back. I am suggesting they will need them both back just to be competitive. Saints are going along okay without dazzling while the Dockers, as brave as they were last week have an awful lot of kids going around at the minute. Saints played well earlier in the year in Perth and have pretty much a full strength team to pick from. And they are $2.05 in some markets!!! Yes please!!!! Pretty keen on the Saints getting the job done. I reckon they should be around the $1.65 / $1.70 mark so will play here.
St Kilda by 31 points (94-63)
St Kilda H2H @ $2.05 (Strong Bet
St Kilda 1 – 39 @ $2.45
St Kilda by > 15.5 @ $3.00 (Like this!!)
Small bet on St Kilda by 40+ @ $7.00
St Kilda H2H @ $2.05
Best Of The Rest
Total bet OVER 189.5 (Ess vs Bris)
Sydney H2H @ $1.85
Richmond H2H @ $3.35
Syd / WB / Adel / St K @ $6.50
Syd 1-39 / WB 1-39 / Adel > 15.5 / GC v Nth Total > 189.5 / GWS 1-39 / Rich +21.5 / Ess v Bris Total >195.5 / Haw v Coll < 15.5 / StK 1-39
@ $760…. there are worse bets a person can have….