Gamblor can and does get it wrong from time to time but if you have followed Gamblor over the last few years you would find the great man is right more than he is wrong. But WOW we were wrong on a massive scale about the Haw v GC game. Fair to say that was a good old fashioned strip out! To look at the positives through Gamblor was spot on that they’d be 10 goals + in it J
However if you avoided the bomb site that was that game, there were some winners to be found that hopefully lessened the blow. We found St Kilda by 15+ & Saints 1-39 which thanks to the errand kicking of the Saints saluted. We also predicted a close one in the WEC v Rich clash so the ‘Either side < 15.5’ got up. The big value was found in the early markets though with the Carl v Ess Total Score line set at 188.5. A quick look at the weather forecast told you it was going to be a wet one and we pounced on the UNDER. Fair to say with a final score of 57 to 42, we were never sweating this one.
Gamblor got 2 in his footy tipping which may explain the poor showing this round.
But Round 4 is a new round with new opportunities. Let’s find them!
Sydney vs WCE
WCE are the same old WCE. Look like top 4 material at home and struggle on the road. Back home against a Sydney side that look like they may only 1 fit ruckman. Reckon the Eagles will get up but Sydney have been super competitive so this will be tight for most of it.
WCE by 21 points (109-88)
WCE by 1-39 @ $2.15
WCE at the line (-14.5) @ $1.91.
Stagger your investments around these two and you’ll be sweet. With luck they both salute for a big result.
Nth Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Kangas has looked good but are winless while the Doggies have only JUST been ticking along and were caught off guard by a rejuvenated Freo. Expecting the Dogs to bounce back here but again can see the North ensuring that it doesn’t blow out.
Dogs by 28 points (111-83)
Total Score OVER 180 @ $1.70 seems a safe play under the roof.
Melbourne vs Fremantle
The Dees kicked themselves out of the game vs Geelong and that was without Lewis, Hogan & Gawn for the most part. They are still missing but with Spencer in to replace Gawn, Melbourne will be far better balanced. Expecting them to win and win well.
Melbourne by 49 points (118-69)
Melbourne at the line (-22.5) seems a good play here @ $1.92
Melbourne by 50+ @ $4 is a rough play also
GWS vs Port Adelaide
Giants did the job in Tassie and face a Port team who were gallant against the all-conquering Crows. This will be a great test for the Power to see whether they are genuine top 4-6 material or are they just one of the teams in the 7-13 pack that happen to be in form currently.
GWS by 31 points (107-76)
GWS by 15+ @ $1.60 seems a generous multi builder.
GWS sould cover the line too (-22.5) @ $1.91
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Good luck trying to work out Gold Coast. Fair to say Gamblor got them wrong…to the tune of approx. 140 points! Different kettle of fish in Melbourne hwoever and the Blues, while far from dazzling have been competitive enough in all of their games. Not a game I’m keen to get involved in.
Carlton by 9 points (98-89)
Zero confidence about anything to do with this game.
Adelaide vs Essendon
Crows are on fire but the loss of Jenkins last week & McGovern this week weakens that gun forward line somewhat. Bombers have been profitable this year by laying them when favourite and backing them when underdog. Not keen to back them here though…
Adelaide by 34 points (114-80)
Collingwood vs St Kilda
Having trouble separating these two teams. Both coming off poor nights in front of goals yet both won. The Pies midefield could run rampant but if that forward line doesn’t function, the run and rebound of the Saints will cut them up. St Kilda are the value and at Dockland seems a good price to invest.
St Kilda by 7 points (106-99)
Saints H2H @ $2.10
Saints 1-39 @ $2.70
Either side by < 15.5 @ $2.85
Brisbane vs Richmond
Was really hoping to get a silly price about Brisbane here ($3.80+) but they are right in the market which lessened my enthusiasm to get involved here. I’m not sold on Richmond yet and while they should win this, Brisbane have been solid enough at home and will be competitive here. While Beams, Rocky & Big Stef stay fit, they will challenge sides at home. Can’t take < $3 H2H about them though…
Richmond by 13 points (111-98)
Small bet on Bris at the line (+19.5) @ $1.91 but a tendency to concede late goals will have you very nervous with this one…
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Well, fair to say Gamblor has had a gut full of Hawthorn after their “display” on Sunday which sent me back to washing windscreens on the corner of Punt & Victoria Sts for the week just to get a happy meal in me! But as a wise man once told “When things are good, they are never as good as you think, and when things are bad, they are never as bad as you think”. Sure the run of Hawthorn flags has seemingly come to an end but it doesn’t mean they will collapse and finish bottom 4. And they actually run into a really good match up here with Geelong. The thing that has killed the Hawks in 2017 in leg speed (or lack thereof) and Geelong aren’t exactly 18 Usain Bolts out there. A great chance for a champion team with wounded pride to bounce back. But can’t back them after them hurting me so badly last week.
Hawthorn by 4 points (97-93)
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 / Haw 1 -24 @ $4.25 for interest sake only.
Melb by > 15.5 @ $1.70
WCE by 1-39 @ $2.15
Haw by 1-24 @ $4.25
Melb (>15.5) / WCE (1-39) – $3.60
Yours In Punting