Round 2 was a good one on the whole for tipsters and punters alike and even though we took on a few favourites early in the round (Adel & WB) searching for value we still ended up in front.
2 out of our 3 best saluted with GWS smashing GC as we thought ($3.20 for 60+ really was a gift in hindsight) and WCE v St K was a high scoring affair as predicted. We got too clever by half taking the price early in the week for the under 188.5 in the Bris v St K game when the ground was literally flooded. Of course it drained a treat and we were done over by 2 late Bombers goals in the last 90 seconds.
This week again there are some handsome opportunities are the markets haven’t 100% cottoned on to how teams are travelling. And there is no Thursday night game which give us a little more time to put this together.
Sydney vs Collingwood
Pies actually go well at SCG but that forward line just isn’t functioning at the moment. You can’t be relying on Fasolo to be your main goal kicker. He is the cream on the cake, not the cake. Need more from Moore (pun very much intended). Sydney were out worked in Round 1 and just beaten by a better team on the night last week. You could argue they have run into the 2 in form teams of the competition. Not a game that arouses from a betting perspective. Very much and “watch & learn” game…
Sydney by 18 points (97-79)
Bookies have this about right so no value to be had.
If Collingwood get to a silly price $3,50+ had a Drachma on them. Swans are not moral here
North Melbourne vs GWS
Kangas were impressive on the weekend and you could argue were stiff to lose to the Cats. Giants bounced back against a flaccid Suns outfit. Giants will win but by how much I hear you ask
Weather looks good so I am keen for the Over/Under line to come out and if it is 185 or lower, would be keen to invest in the over, otherwise
Giants by 47 points (121-74)
Giants by 15+ @ $1.45 seems a rock solid multi builder
Richmond vs West Coast
Two undefeated teams going at it here and it seems the very early money is for WCE (maybe rumours of Dusty being out fuelling this). Not sure I’d be taking $1.50 about WCE at the NCH against anybody to be honest. Don’t have a great record there. Not saying they won’t win, just no value at that price. Tigers have been scrappy in both games but have got the job done so will be full of confidence. If Bill Hill are listening, I would love to see a market with the free kick count. Reckon Richmond will get at least 6 more frees than WCE. Just call it a feeling in my bones. IF WCE are the real deal they should win this.
West Coast by 4 points (95-91)
Either side by < 15.5 points @ $2.88 if you must
Geelong vs Melbourne
Had to change my write up completely for this game as I have just read the Lewis & Hogan will both be missing. Cats win but can’t bring myself to back them. Maybe on the back of this news, the Dees price might blow out to something silly where we have to have a few Drachmas on them and The Ewing Theory could kick in… Don’t know what the Ewing Theory is? Read here… http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=The%20Ewing%20Theory
Geelong by 7 points (103-96)
If you must Melbourne at the line (+19.5) @ $1.92 but hold off as this may blow out to 25 or more with any luck…
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
What a ripper this promises to be. The in-form teams of the competition. One expected. One not so much. Reckon the Power are on an absolute heather at the moment and Gamblor loves a team on a heater and at the price, represent great value. This will go down to the wire an live up the hype. How good would it be to be there. The atmosphere will be incredible!!!! Seem silly tip against Adelaide as well as they are going but gotta have some of that #value…
Power by 7 points (101-94)
Power H2H @ $2.65
Power at the line (+14.5) @ $1.95
Power by 1-39 @ $3.20
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
Not a great deal to talk about here. Ross has signalled mass changes at Freo with kids to be given their opportunity. Doggies showed what a professional and class act they are when challenged by Sydney on Friday night. They will get the job done here, the only question here is by how much…
Dogs by 55 points (112-57)
St Kilda vs Brisbane
Saints were very brave but ultimately unsuccessful in their venture to the West and come home to face a Brisbane side who have more than held their own in the 1st fortnight of the season. This is their toughest task to date however. Saints will win but coach Fagan has his young Lions fighting so this won’t blow out as much as people expect…
Saints by 35 points (121-86)
Saints by 15+ @ $1.42 is another solid multi builder
Saints 1-39 @ $2.50 seems value but you will be biting your nails come junk time…
Carlton vs Essendon
Blues stayed with a poor Melbourne for 3 quarters before succumbing while the Bombers marginally got the better of Brisbane at the GABBA. Bombers are undoubtedly the better side but if you think I’m taking $1.20, you are very much mistaken. As I said at the start of the season, I’ll be backing Ess when they are underdogs and laying them when they are favourites. Anticipating that their form will fluctuate wildly as the emotion dissipates and the grind of the season takes hold.
On an aside, the weather In Melbourne currently is gorgeous but the forecast for Sunday is 14 and rain so pretty keen to explore the Total Score UNDER here…
Essendon by 22 points (92-70)
Total score UNDER 180.5 @ $1.91
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn
Hawks you would think will bounce back here and the Suns are in a rut currently (i.e. for their entire existence). Why on Earth is the line only 20 point here!!!! Am I missing something? I know it’s not the same Hawthorn by gee whiz they are still good enough to smash this lot! Initially wasn’t interested in this but I am now. Weather is fine so let’s attack with vigour!!!! It’s not as good a bet as GWS last week but it’s up there…
Hawks by 57 points (131-74)
Hawks by > 15.5 @ $1.70 – Licence to print money
Hawks at the line (-20.5) @ $1.91 – Amazing
Hawthorn by 40+ @ $2.90 – Worth a good go
Hawthorn by 60+ @ $5.25 seems a great price too.
Total Score OVER 198.5 @ $1.91 is also worth a small play
Hawthorn by > 15.5 @ $1.70
Saints by > 15.5 @ $1.42
Hawks by 60+ @ $5.25
Hawthorn by >15.5 / St Kilda by > 15.5 @ $2.42
Yours In Punting