While there was no article for Round 1, it didn’t stop Gamblor having a bet and found an interesting anomaly with held up. All 9 games in Round 1 went OVER the total score line (average team score for R1 103.6 pts), some by a big margin and while I don’t think all 9 have ever done this, Round 1 is traditionally high scoring. For the last 2 years however, teams have averaged a goal less each per game in Round 2 compared to round 1 so expect the scoring spree to subside a touch although round 1 this year was higher scoring than last year which was higher scoring than 2015 so the trend is definitely up… What to take from that? Be wary on jumping on seemingly attractive OVER total score lines this week. They aren’t as attractive as they look…
Collingwqood vs Richmond
Even though Coll lost and Rich won, I’d argue the Pies were the more impressive of the two. Unfortunately the bookie agree so there is not value here…
Collingwood by 19 points (98-79)
Coll by 1-39 @ $2.40
Coll at the line (-3.5) @$1.90
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
Grand final replay and it should be a ripper! Swans were worryingly beaten at their own game on their own dung heap last weekend but a side of this pedigree doesn’t have two shockers in a row, while the Doggies were efficient if not spectacular against the Pies. Reckon this will be a nail biter and as the Doggies are favourites, the value is with Sydney.
Sydney by 4 points (89-85)
Sydney 1-39 @ $3 seems a good price
Either side by < 15.5 pts @ $2.80
Hawthorn vs Adelaide
Hawks on the rebound are all dangerous but gee whiz you’d be a brave man to tip against the juggernauts that are the Crows. Has does that Hawks back line hold a firing Crows offence with Tex to come back. In saying that, not many interstate sides come at beat Hawthorn at the Gee!!! Should be a great watch but not overly keen from an investment perspective.
Hawthorn by 9 points (103-92)
Hawthorn by 1-39 @ $2.70 if you must
GWS vs GC
Giants were flaccid in Adelaide but not many teams will be leaving the Adelaide oval with the chocolates so not a hanging offence. Starting Round 1 like GC did. Now, THAT is a hanging offence. Good Lord! Giants to get payback at home in a big way!
GWS by 74 points (137-73)
GWs by 60+ @ $3.20 seems a good bet here
Brisbane vs Essendon
Two winnings teams from last week but not a game that grabs. Other than I must admit to having a sizable go at the “total score UNDER 188.5” when I heard the weather forecast. If it si still available at time of publication, pounce with vigour
Essendon by 11 points (83-72)
Total Score UNDER 188.5 @ $1.90
WCE vs St Kilda
WCE looks the goods. I know they only beat Nth but not many Eagles ides win that impressively in Melbourne although they literally have no ruckmen left, should be way too strong at home. Saints need to show something after last week’s poor showing but will find it tough here. Again, not a game that grabs me from a betting perspective…
WCE by 37 points (131-94)
Even though I said I wasn’t enthused by this match up, I am about the total score OVER 192.5 @ $1.90
Geel vs North
Geelong will win. North do not interest me in the slightest from a betting perspective all year unless something drastic changes.
Geel by 41 points (121-80)
Cats should cover the line (-28.5) @ $1.90
Melbourne vs Carlton
Gee whiz Melbourne were impressive but if think I’m taking a run up and jumping on the Dees at $1.20 against anyone, you are very much mistaken. I’m sure they will get the job done and look a genuine finals contender but strange things happen early in the year (remember the Bombers that had not hope of winning a game beat the Dees). Blues are no good and will struggle big time this year. Just not a game I see a great need in getting invbolved in.
Melbourne by 51 points (116-65)
Again, Melb should cover the line (-28.5) @ $1.90 but only if you must
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle
How good were the Power?!?! The contested footy beasts from 2014 raised their heads and it was great to see. Again, another this round where I have pretty convinced the favourite will win, but extremely loathe to take the super short prices. Expect a pretty dour contest to ends the round.
Port by 38 points (99-61)
Total Score UNDER 181.5 @ $1.90
WCE vs St K – Total Score OVER 192.5
Bris vs Ess – Total Score UNDER 188.5
GWS by 60+ vs GC @ $3.20
GWS (>15.5) / WCE / Melb / Haw v Adel (either side < 15.5) / Geel / – @ $6.20
Bris vs Ess (UNDER 188.5) / WCE v St K (OVER 192.5) – $3.80
Yours In Punting