Welcome to Christmas for followers of the equine game. Derby Day is a cracker as a rule and this is no exception. Add to that, there is great weather and a good track and we have no excuses…..other than it’s a bloody hard day to find a winner. Normally if you manage to find 2 winners on Derby Day, it will be a winning one as there is #value to be had.
Gamblor has bags to pack so lets get into this:
Hey Doc (No.1) is the rightful favourite here winning the Guineas last start but is this an after thought? Surely the Guineas was its Grand Final… Huge chance however and even with the extra weight, its best wins this. Bezel (No.5) was very good us last start in Sydney over this distance and comes to Melbourne in winning form. Stable normally set a nice horse for this race and this is it. $8 seems overs. Mortons Fork (No.3) is still trying to get a run from 2 weeks ago (of course I backed it) but I question the form from that race. The spruik horse here is Comin Through (No.10) who last start flew home with a neon sign saying “Back Me Next Start”. Well this is its next start. Up in grade and short enough @ $5. Not a fan of the jockey either.
Recommened Bet: Bezel (e/w) @ $8 should give you a good run for your money
The Oaks warm-up is a race I have had good success with in the past but I must admit I’m not terribly enamoured with this years edition. Tiamo Grace (No.6) somehow managed to lose last start (moral beaten) over this trip and a repeat performance with a little extra luck means she will win. Again though, at $3.20 I search for #value. Pretty Punk (No.2) was pretty good against the boys in Geelong and that form may hold up okay so has to be included. The X Factor here is Seebring Dream (No.4). Got way too far back last start and hit the line well albeit not as impressively as Tiamo Grace. Change of jockey and a (slightly) better barrier means she will get every possible chance.
Recommended Bet: Seebring Dream (e/w)
Regular readers of my racing work will be aware that I detest straight races and this is the 1st for the day. Sheidel (No.2) has been very good to Gamblor and is in great form (as is the Hayes stable as a whole). A mare in form is always a good bet but there is just so much #value here, while I’m including her in the chances I probably wont be backing her. There are a few at huge odds we can play with here and if one lands, we win well on the race. They are: Tempt Me Not (No.5) – Down from Sydney and trialled well. Cummings stable alight currently too. $31. Almighty Girl (No.7) – Total forgive run last start. Its best can win this.$20. Rule The River (No.17) – Drawn out wide which could be the place to be. Solid 1st up and great 2nd up form. Again from Cummings yard. $11. Zara Bay (No.20) – Another won drawn wide. Reckon the form from its last start will hold up. D Dunn stuck with her. $31. Viddora (No.13) is an Adel horse that looks well placed too. Open affair as you may have gathered.
Recoomended Bet: Small e/w on any of the roughies mentioned.
The Lexus is the last chance saloon for anyone trying to get a spot in the big race on Tuesday. Oceanographer (No.8) was huge in the Geelong Cup and now that connections have realised that they may not qualify for the Cup, are running here. Looks the obvious and every horse that the stable have brought over have run out of their skin. De Little Engine (No.7) was my long term pick for this race and will still run very well but fear he has run into a good one here. Tom Melbourne (No.5) is getting fitter with every run and will bowl along in front. Prepared to risk Real Love (No.2) here. Is already in the Cup so will be using this as a tune up run for that. Will get back and hit the line hard.
Recommended Bet: Strong Win bet on Oceanographer (No.8). Saver e/w bet on De Little Engline (No.7). Will be staggered is anything outside these two wins.
Bonus Bet: Back Oceanographer now for the Melbourne Cup @ $21 because if he wins this he will shorten to about $8.
This is simply the best race I have seen in a long time. A sprint race for the 3yo’s and this is a vintage crop. 5 genuine guns in this race and while I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them win, I am completely in love with Astern (No.3). Has been huge in all 3 starts this campaign and has clearly been set for this when other races were at his mercy. Will get the last crack at them and (hopefully) will go whoosh. My confidence is tempered somewhat by the quality in this race. Extreme Choice (No.2) beat Chataqua etc.. 1st up and looked great. Has to be respected. Star Turn has been very good to Gamblor this campaign and probably should have beaten Astern last time they met. $4.20 is a great price. Russian Revolution (No. 6) is undefeated ,beating Astern last start. In any other year he’d be $2. Here he is double figures. Flying Artie (No.4) is a gun and won well 1st but barely rates a mention. If you watch one race all day, make it this one!
Recommended Bet: Astern (No.3) I got $4 but I dare say that is gone
The Myer Classic is the grad final for the girls and is traditionally a tricky race. Here we have a deciosn to make. Do we go the tried and tested mares (Don’t Doubt Mumma, First Seal etc..) or the up and comers (Euro Angel, Dixie Blossoms etc..). The vakue is withthe latter group and that is where I’m leaning. Euro Angel (No. 12) was huge last start albein in significantly weaker grade. Meets far better performed horses at equal weights but reckon she is a little special. Will need a gun run from Zac but at the $12 is worth a e/w ticket for sure. Don;t Doubt Mumma (No7) is the obvious and her last two wins have been huge. Can easily see her doing it again here. First Seal (No.2) was good to us a fortnight ago and will be better for that run. Barrier 1 concerns me a touch as she will need room down the straight but if she gets it, she has the class. Hopes also to numbers 4,5 & 10. A roughie is Rising Roamnce (No.1) at a huge price. Her best craps this in but isn;t in peak form.
Recommended Bet: Euro Angel (e/w)
The “Don’t Overthink it GAMBLOR you idiot” Bet – Don;t Doubt Mumma (No.7)
Best Roughie: Rising Romance @ $21
The Derby is a race with limited winning chances in my humble. Sacred Elixir (No.1) won impressively last start (God bless it) and is a righful favourite. Looks as though the distance won;t be an issue but at $2.80 seems very short. Swear (No.3) will end up being the best horse in the field and the extra distance looks as it will suit. Was 2nd behind Yankee Rose last start who ran well beind Winx in the Cox Plate last start. At $8 is a safe e/w bet. Capt Duffy (No.7) led all the way in Geelong last start and will be in this for a long way. So Si Bon (No.10) was my long term tip for this race but wasn’t taken with its last start behind Sacred Elixir (No.1). Back to Flem and a firm track will help. Now that I have jumped off, he will no doubt shit it in
Recommended Bet: Swear (e/w)
The “Don;t Overthink it GAMBLOR you idiot” bet – Sacred Elixir (No.1)
This is the old Emerites Stakes that has been moved from the last day of the carnival and the best form for this race comes from the Epsom in Sydney a few weeks ago. Macintosh (No.11) is a lightly raced horse who ran a great 3rd in the Epsom. 3rd up here and with Moreira back on, is another great e/w option. La Romain (No.5) was narrowly behind Macintosh in the Epson and should run well also. The Melbourne form line is varied with The United States (No.2) winning well last week and looked as though he will derive benefit from that. Backing up so quickly concerns me but on class, he is the man! He’s Our Rokki (No.4) has had my money on him each of his last 3 wins but think his grand final was last start so going to risk him (which hurts). Other hopes to No’s 3,6 (at odds),7,9 & 16
Recommended Bet: Macintosh (e/w)
Best Roughie: Thunder Fantasy @ $26 could be a freak!
The nightcap brings us a very nice visitor from NSW in Southern Legend (No.11). Looks really well placed and would unleash but for two aspects. Unknown down the straight and WHY DID HE BRING THE JOCKEY FROM NSW TOO! Tim Clark is a nice Sydney rider but I have been burnt many times by a nice horse looking ideally palced and a non local jockey fucking it all up. Backing you in here Tim. Don’t let us down!!!! Keen Array (No.5) is another Hayes horse that has been good to us and should run well. X Factor here is Counterattack (No.6). Freshened up after tackling a mile last start. His best wins this. We’ve Got This (N0.9) loves the straight and the firm going. Has to be included
Recommended Bet: Win bet on Southern Legend (No.11).
Race 4 No 8 Oceanographer
Race 9 No 11 Southern Legend
Best Each Way
Race 8 No 11 Macintosh
Race 1 No 5 Bezel
Race 6 No 12 Euro Angel
Race 3 No 16 Rule The River
2,4,6 / 1,2,5,7,8,13,14,16,20 / 7,8 / 2,3,5,6 – $50 for 25%
4,6 / 2,13,16 / 7,8 / 3,5
1,2,4,5,7,10,12 / 1,2,3,10 / 2,3,4,6,7,11,16 / 9,11 – $50 for 15%
7,12 / 1,3 / 2,11 / 9,11
YOURS IN PUNTING