We were 50/50 on the footy last week with the Doggies spoiling our party but the Swans did the right thing by us and we cleaned up there. The massive returns were with the racing bets with all 3 of our Best Bets saluting and 11 winners selected from 19 races in between Melbourne & Sydney. Amazing stuff and looking good heading into Spring Carnival time.
Also 2 of our 3 NFL picks got up so overall, a pretty solid weekend on the Punt.
Again, check in again on Saturday morning (if you are reading this earlier than then) for the updated racing, EPL & NFL tips.
Geel vs Sydney
Friday @ 7.50pm EST
Will we look back at that Isaac Smith missed shot at goal (not shot ON goal Dwayne Russell) as destiny. The Hawks were duly beaten again while the Cats were sitting pretty, watching Sydney get many injuries en route to meeting them on Friday night. The Cats have all the advantages. Home ground – Week Off – Injury Free. And in this super tight finals series, any advantage is a significant one and cannot be understated.
Yet why am I continually drawn to Sydney in this one. Sydney for mine, have been the best team for the longest in 2016 and as irrelevant as that is in a one off game in late September, I still believe that stands for something. I just feel Sydney are a better side than Geelong. If they were to play 20 times with everyone fully fit, I reckon Sydney win 14 times min.
But that isn’t how footy works. If the Sydney can bring the ferociousness and hunger that they displayed against Sydney, as good as Danger & Selwood are I’m not sure they can do much about that. Then the Big X factor here. BUDDY! If he can get space and allow up to get on his bike, the Cats have no one that can go with him. Other Swan forwards like Papley, McGlynn etc.. won’t get the 1 on 1 match ups they desire as the Cats defend as a group and that space simply won’t be afforded to them.
This will be a nail biter and in spite of all that I have said above, I’m stick with the Swans to reach the big dance.
Sydney by 7 points (91-84)
Sydney H2H @ $2.35
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.90
Sydney 1-24@ $3.60
Either side to win by < 39.5 @ $1.26 is a licence to print money if you have the minerals to take the short price.
Also back Sydney for the flag @ $4.20. If they win this, they will be $1.55 to beat either of the other two. Do the same for Geelong if you feel they will get up. The winner of this prelim will be hot favourite for the big one.
Greater Western Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday @ 5.15pm EST
GAMBLOR has been pretty consistent with the Doggies throughout the finals series. And by consistent I mean WRONG! HORRIBLY WORNG! They have been fantastic all finals series facing two of the tough tasks in footy. Facing West Coast in Perth and then Hawthorn in a final at the MCG and have smashed them both. The scoreboard in both games was not a true reflection of their dominance.
Sometimes you watch a final an d you feel that “They have played there Granby Final”. A gret example is when Adelaide beat the Bulldogs at the MCG last year. The Crows were duly smashed the next week. I don’t get that feel with the Doggies, no matter how unlikely the wins have been.
In saying that, GAMBLOR readers have made good money from backing GWS at home all season and are not going to deviate from a winning formula. Really don’t know how one of Cameron, Lobb or Patton don’t get off the leash. Giants can match the Doggies for the maniacal pressure and outside run but have those key forwards which I believe will be the difference.
There isn’t a whole heap of value here from a punting perspective as I pretty much agree with the market but am loathe to beat too much against the Doggies for the 3rd consecutive week. Fool me once, fool on you,. Fool me twice fool on me. Fool me 3 times…..well, that’s not good.
GWS by 28 points (96-68)
GWS by >15.5 @ $2.00
Total Point 151-160 @ $6.00
GWS to score 91-105 @ $3.75
WB to score 61-75 @ $3.30
GWS by 40+ @ $4 is worth a few cents too…
R2: 8,3,4,5 (Yuck race. Please don’t bet)
Race 6 No 6 – Archives @ $4.50
Race 1 No 5 – Jalan Jalan @ $4.50
Best Each Way
Race 7 No 11 – Bon Aurum @ $6
Race 9 No 1 – Shidel
Race 8 No 7 – He or She @ $12
2,3,4,5,7,8 / 1,3,6 / 3,4,7,8 / 1,3,12 – $50 for 23%
2,6,9 / 6,7,9,11 / 2,6,7 / 1,7,11 – $50 for 46%
Race 9 No3 – Bullrush @ $5
Race 6 No2 – Swear @ $4
Best Each Way
Race 4 No 3 Overtake @ $9.50
Race 8 No7 – Caped Crusader
1,2,3 / 1,8,12 / 3,5,11 / 1,2,3 – $50 for 62%
1,2,3 / 1,2,5 / 7,3 / 3,5,7,9,10,11,13 – $50 for 40%
Success for the best partnership since Woodbridge / Woodford with PANTHOR / GAMBLOR hitting pay dirt. Here is what they like this week:
Current Tally Raised for www.beyondblue.org.au = $399