The Brownlow is really the only race you can bet on after it’s been run. The games have already been plated and you have seen them all so you know how everyone went, it’s just a matter of what the men in lime green thought. With this being said it always upsets me if I don’t make money from this event.
So GAMBLOR has gone to extreme lengths to produce this absolute manifesto of gambling strategies and ideas on how to make some coin from that boring Monday night before the Grand Final.
Captain Obvious reports that Paddy Dangerfield is an overwhelming favourite and will certainly win, that doesn’t end our gambling interest. Due to the ever growing popularity of people losing their money on-line, many sites have many different and interesting markets up for the event.
The one that has tickled the fancy of GAMBLOR is with Crown Bet as they have a market on all 198 H&A games as to who will get the 3 votes. This is where we can make some money I believe.
I will go through Round by Round the best games to invest in and an investment strategy around those picks. I won’t be touching the super short ones (i.e. Danger Round 1 $1.04 vs Haw – Anything < $1.20 I won’t be mentioning) but we can uncover some GOLD here.
Something to also use as a companion guide while staying at home, dressing up in a tux having your dinner in front of the telly pretending you are there…. Everyone does that right??
Best Bet: Lambert (Rich v Carl ) @ $1.70
Why: Lambert was clearly the Tigers best in their narrow win and received the maximum votes in nearly all media awards. The only reason he isn’t $1.45 is that he isn’t a big name. The only threats are Carlton players and it tends to take a spectacular effort to get 3 votes in a losing side. Off to a flyer here
Best Roughie: Aaron Hall (GC vs Ess) @ $2.25
Why: GAJ is favourite but Hall was huge with 40 touches. Has be to a massive chance
Others: Jack Viney (Melb vs GWS) @ $1.50 / Robbie Gray (Pt vs StK) @ $1.44 / Josh Kennedy (WCE vs Bris)
Best Bet: Tom Lynch (Adel vs Pt) @ $1.33
Why: Won The Medal and 27/35 BOG medal winners in H&A games get the 3 votes. 6 goals will help too
Best Roughie: Tom Mitchell (Carl v Syd)@ $2.25
Why: He is favourite but at a very back able price. Was clearly best for mine but all those gun Syd mids were good.
Others: Alex Fasolo (Coll v Rich) @ $1.45 / Josh Gibson (Haw vs WCE) @ $1.45
Best Bet: Luke Parker (Syd vs GWS @ $1.35 / Matt Priddis (WCE vs Freo) @ $1.25
Why: Both BOG Medal winners (as stated above)
Best Roughie: n/a
Others: Todd Goldstein (Nth vs Melb) @ $1.55 / Hall (GC vs Carl) @ $1.85
Best Bet: Pearce Hanley (Bris v GC) @ $1.25
Why: Another BOG Medal winner
Best Roughie: Elliot Yeo (WCE vs Rich) @ $3.75
Why: Shuey & Gaff are rightful favourites but Yeo had a stand-out game and is worth a flutter at the price
Others: Viney (Melb v Coll) @ $1.47 / Hunter (WB vs Carl) @ $1.40
Best Bet: n/a
Why: Not super confident here
Best Roughie: Luke Parker
Why: Ted Richards should get the 3 but Parker is a proven vote getter and was clearly second best, Worth a flutter as guys like Teddy can fall through the cracks on Brownlow night. Umps just don’t notice them.
Others: Murphy (Carl v Freo) @ $2.15 / Goldstein @ $1.60 / Puopolo (Haw vs Adel) @ $1.40
Best Bet: Rory Sloane (Adel v Freo) @ $1.28
Why: The clear and obvious option here. If he doesn’t get 3 here, he never will.
Best Roughie: Steve Johnson (GWS vs Haw) @ $3.75 / Jared Polec (Pt vs Rich) @ $3.25
Why: Stevie J is favourite in the bookies cannot make their mind up. Kicked 5 with 24 touches and some typical Stevie J magic. A stand out for mine and a great price. Polec had a huge one and is a great price
Others: Nick Rievoldt (St K v Melb) @ $1.55 / Jarrad Waite (Nth v WB) @ $2.20
Best Bet: Luke Breust (Haw v Rich) @ $2.10
Why: Great price for a guy who was clearly BOG and practically every media outlet gave him the maximum
Best Roughie: Josh Jenkins (WB vs Adel) @ $2.40
Why: Bont is the obvious option here as he was the best in a winning side, but when was the last guy who kicked 8 goals not get the 3 votes?
Others: Bryce Gibbs (Carl v Coll) @ $1.65 / Max Gawn (Melb v GC) @ $1.70 / Stephen Coniglio (GWS vs Freo) @ $1.65
Best Bet: Adam Treloar (Coll v Bris) @ $1.38
Why: Complete stand out BOG and received the votes from pretty much everyone. Ticks all the boxes
Best Roughie: Ben Griffiths (Rich v Syd) @ $3.50
Why: Equal favourite with Hanners but Griff was on the winning side which historically counts for a lot.
Others: Gibbs (Carl v Pt) @ $1.70 (great price) / Gibson (Nth v Ess) @ $1.75
Best Bet: Jack Steven (St K v Ess) @ $1.35
Why: 40 touches and was everywhere. A no brainer and a good bet at that price
Best Roughie: Tom Lynch (Adel v GWS) @ $3.25
Why: A even game but thought he was best. Great odds
Others: Hanners (Haw v Syd) @ $1.60
Best Bet: Luke Dalhaus (WB v Coll) @ $1.55
Why: 37 touches and a goal in a dominant win. Yes please at that price
Best Roughie: David Armitage (StK v Freo) @ $2
Why: I know it’s not that rough but great value here. Steven is favourite but Army was huge and got BOG pretty much everywhere
Others: Wingard (Melb v Pt) @ $1.85
Best Bet: Joel Selwood (Geel v GWS) @ $1.60
Why: Massive last term to win his side the game. Would be fresh in the umps mind. Great price
Best Roughie: Dom Tyson (Haw v Melb) @ $2.25 / Weitering (Carl v Bris ) @ $4.25
Why: Again. Not super rough but clearly BOG for mine and a great price. Weiters clearly overs. Should go close but worth a shot at the price
Real Roughie: Kurt Tippett (Syd v GC) @ $6.50
Why: Dominant ruckman on the ground in a very even game. There are worse bets out there
Others: Wells (Nth v Rich) @ $1.33
Best Bet: Bont (WB v Pt) @ $1.50
Why: 29 touches, 2 goals and big in the last term to win a close one.
Best Roughie: n/a
Others: Gawn (Melb v Coll) @ $1.30 / Taberner (Freo v Bris) @ $1.90
Best Bet: n/a. Plenty of ones that are too short
Best Roughie: n/a
Others: McVeigh (Syd v Melb) @ $2.15 / Shuey (WCE v Bris) @ $2.05
Best Bet: No guarantees but some value
Best Roughie: Matt Crouch (Adel v Nth) @ $2.15
Why: Sloane is favourite but Crouch with 32 and 2 goals seems value which in bye rounds is hard to find
Others: Ross (St K v Geel) @ $1.75
Best Bet: Travis Boak (Pt vs Rich) @ $1.44 / Andrew Gaff (WCE v Ess) @ $1.70
Why: A rare huge game from Boak in 2016. Did everything. BOG. Gaff killed it and seems a great price
Best Roughie: Rory Laird (Adel v Melb) @ $2.50
Why: Not a roughie as such but great value at the price
Others: Rischatelli (GC v StK) @ $1.55
Best Bet: Touk Miller (GC vs Bris) @ $1.52
Why: Great price for a medal winner
Best Roughie: Brodie Grundy (GWS vs Coll) @ $2.10
Why: Again, not that rough but Grundy was huge after ¼ time. Clearly BOG and a super price. I have him $1.50
Others: Hodge (Haw v Pt) @ $1.72 / Shuey (WCE v Nth) @ $1.57 / Bont (WB v Rich) @ $1.80
Best Bet: Callan Ward (GWS v Bris) @ $1.50
Why: 31 touches and 3 goals from a perennial vote getter. Seems a no brainer to me.
Best Roughie: Tim Membury (St K v Melb ) @ $2.30 & Andrew Gaff (WCE v Carl) @ $2.35
Why: Both are favourites but at good prices.
Others: Stevens (WB v GC) @ $1.55 / Gray (Nth v Pt) @ $1.45
Best Bet: Tom Rockiff (Bris v Ess) @ $1.40
Why: Short but sweet. 38 touches and a goal. Clearly the best player for the winning team
Best Roughie: Steven May (GC vs Freo) @ $3.25
Why: Neale with 42 touches is fave but GC won well. Sexton at the same price also worth a look
Others: Bartel (Adel v Geel) @ $2.25 / Mitchel (Haw v Rich) @ $1.42
Best Bet: Josh P Kennedy (Syd v Freo) @ $1.33
Why: 45 touches & 3 goals. Ummm, yes please!!!!
Best Roughie: N/A
Others: Watts (Melb v GC) @ $1.80 / Coniglio (GWS v Rich) @ $1.65
Best Bet: Max Gawn (Melb v Haw) @ $1.72
Why: Viney & Cyril will be in the running but Gawn was tewh reason for the win. Deserves the 3 but will he get the… GAMBLOR SAYS YES
Best Roughie: Alex Rance (Rich v Coll) @ $2.40
Why: Seems great value for a guy that literally everyone has given BOG to this night.
Others: May (GWS v GC) @ 2.60 #value / Kennedy (WCE v Freo) @ $1.20 #medalwinner
Best Bet: Luke Shuey (WCE vs GWS) @ $1.28
Why: I know Nic Nat kicked the winning goal but this game was all about Shuey.
Best Roughie: Alex Rance (Rich v Geel) @ $3
Others: Zaharakis (Ess v GC) @ $1.55 / Betts (Adel v Freo) @ $1.90 / Bont (WB v Coll) @ $1.55
Best Bet: Matt Crouch (Adel v Pt) @ $1.55
Why: Medal winner and for mine was clearly BOG. Eddie with 5 goals seemingly the only threat
Best Roughie 1: Sam Menagola (Geel v Bris) @ $2.80
Why: Danger is favourite because…. His is Danger but Sam was huge here and clearly BOG. Hopefully the umps haven’t fallen so much in love with Danger that they don’t see this.
Best Roughie 2: Harvery (Nth v Syd) @ $3.80
Why: I know Nth lost but Boomer was amazing. 32 touches and 3 goals. Worth a flutter
Others: Treloar (Coll v GC) @ $1.55 / Ross (St K v Rich) @ $1.33
Best Bet: Patrick Dangerfield (Geel v Melb) @ $1.40
Why: Just to bring home the medal in the best way possible. And it’s the only time I’ve seen him at a back able quote.
Best Roughie: n/a
Others: Gaff (Adel v WCE) @ $1.28 / Patton (GWS vs Nth) @ $1.62 / Buddy (Syd v Rich) @ $1.33
Leading Vote Getter At Your Club
Waite (at a huge price)