West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs
Thursday 8th September
Subiaco 8.10PM EST
GAMBLOR has been really impressed with WCE over the last month or so and they are finally starting to resemble the team that made a grand final 12 months ago. Defensive solidity (the web), a hard running, hard-working midfield with depth and we have always waxed lyrical about the highly vaunted forward line led by Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy. At home against an injury ravaged Doggies side who have the looks of a team that have spent all their tickets, the WCE should be too good. No real value in the market though (at time of publication)
West Coast by 33 points (109-76)
WCE by > 15.5 @ $ 1.55
WCE at the line (-25.5) @ $1.90
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Friday 9th September
MCG 7.50PM EST
No one wants to be “that guy” who writes off the Hawks as recent history would suggest that is not the most savvy of moves, especially in finals at the MCG….BUT you have to call it as you see it. They have been struggling to keep up with the peleton all race (to use Le Tour as a metaphor) and now that the final sprint is on, you have to wonder how much more is in the legs.
But they have done it before I hear you say. I also hear you say that the Cats, as impressive as they have been of late have beaten nothing (Ess, Rich, Bris & Melb). I just get the feeling that along with Sydney, Geelong are hitting September as close to fully fit and in form as anyone and we must bet accordingly. Although I must admit to a nauseous feeling that comes over me whenever I bet against Hawthorn…
Geelong by 21 points (102-81)
Geel H2H @ $1.70
Geel at the line (-6.5) @ $1.91
Geel by > 15.5 @ $2.35
Sydney vs Greater Western Sydney
Saturday 10th September
Olympic Stadium, Sydney 3.20PM EST
Every indicator whether be by crunching the numbers or the good old fashioned eye-test tells you that Sydney are the best team in the competition heading into September. You could argue that all of their top 10 players are currently in season best form (Hanners the only possible exception) and the kids that have come into this side have revitalised this aging group to have the necessary verve & pace to compliment the already existing class and experience. Yeah, I’m a fan.
GWS have been great this year and GAMBLOR has made much coin from their efforts in 2016 and while I don’t buy into the “you have to lose won to win one” finals mantra, they have run into a juggernaut here. The Giants will be competitive and are one of the few sides in 2016 that boast a win against the Swans, but this is a very different Sydney side to the one they knocked off earlier in the year. Think we can bet with confidence here.
Sydney by 27 points (103-76)
Sydney H2H @ $1.50
Sydney by > 15.5 @ $1.90
Sydney by 1-39 @ $2.20
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Saturday 11th September
Adelaide Oval 7.40PM EST
Crows were poor last week but there were excuses. No Sloane which was the area they were beaten up on (clearances) and they hit me as a side that the “bye” came at a good time. Jacobs & Walker in particular will be grateful for the rest as they were both very poor against WCE
Kangas have won 3 of their last 13 games so I’m not sure how anyone can make a case for them to get up here. The only thing is that they have finished 8th the last couple of years and won but this is a very different year to those. Add to that the dramas of the 4 (old) Amigos not having their contracted renewed and the wheels are seemingly falling off at Arden Street for season 2016.
Traditionally there is one blow out in the 4 finals in week 1, and this on face value looks a prime candidate.
Adelaide by 67 points (118-57)
Adelaide at the line (-28.5) seems money for jam @ $1.91
Adelaide H2H @ $1.23 is good a multi builder as you will see
Adelaide > 39.5 @ $2.40
Adelaide by 60+ @ $4.25 is also worth a look.
Adel at the line (-28.5)
Other Best Bets
WCE by > 15.5
Syd by >15.5
Adel by 60+
WCE / Geel / Syd / Adel – @ $3.60
WCE (>15.5) / Geel (1-39) / Syd (>15.5) / Adel (-28.5) @ $12.30
Enjoy the best week of footy for the year!!!
YOURS IN PUNTING