Derby Day is Christmas for followers of the equines like myself with 9 ripping races over the day. All Killer & No Filler as the kids would say…..or they said in the 90’s when a good album came out…Rememeber albums…..Cassingles? .A few things mentioned there that are really showing up my age.
Anywho, with stormy conditions predicted, coupled with some even races I’m not going to lie, it looks a tough day but if you followed Gamblor over the Carnival so far, you should a handy bank to be playing with.
Now please bear in mind that we have 4 big days ahead so it is important to pace yourself. And I mean this from both a punting & socialising perspective. Don’t go too hard too early. A lesson learned from experience let me assure you. In saying that, if you see me in the Car Park today, dont be afraid to throw a beer my way 
Enough ado already, so with no further of that, let’s get stuck into the Terrance Trent Day card…
Race 1
The traditional start to Derby Day is the Carbine Club over the mile for the 3 year olds over 1600m and Bassett (No.3) comes through the A grade form races for such an event. He jumped up from 1100m to 1600m last start and just ran out juice late but will hold it in good stead for this but at $3.40 for a horse unproven at the distance, that is not a betting proposition. Mahuta (No.4) led all the way to narrowly beat Holler last start who has since come out and won easily at Moonee Valley so the form looks solid enough and looks a progressive type. 3rd in that race was Flying light (No.10) who gets blinkers on this time. Montauk (No.5) is a NSW visitor that has been up for a while but won well over this trip last time and has to be considered.
Other hopes to He’s Our Rokkii (No.7) who has got shocking rides his last 2 starts after winning 1st up but has the same jockey and an awkward gate which means it will need luck again & Greddinton (No.6) who finished ahead of He’s Our Rokkii a month again over this distance but is 4 weeks between runs which normally isn’t a good sign.
A tricky one to kick things off…
Selections: 7,4,5,3
Recommended Bet: Small1 win x 3 place – He’s Our Rokkii (No.7)
Best Roughie: Flying Light (No.10) @ $21 is value…
Race 2
This is the dress rehearsal for the Oaks on Saturday and most of these ran against each other a fortnight ago at Caulfield which was won by Dawnie Perfect (No.2) and can see no reason why she won’t do it again but it’s an even race. Of the ones that finished behind her last start, Ambience (No.4) will derive the most benefit from the run. She is the most inexperienced and looks ready to improve. A couple of roughies that flashed home in that race must be considered too. Zarabeel (No.13 @ $61) & especially Princess Aria (No.15 @ $31) will be hitting the line hard if they get luck in running. Interesting that D Oliver has been put on board this week so they mean business.
Outside of that race the best chances are My Poppette (No.1) who won easily last weekend (God Bless Her) and is backing up which is a huge positive & Muzyka (No.10) who won crapped in a maiden in country NSW last time and while the distance won’t be a problem, the class might be…
Selections: 4,1,2,15
Recommended Bet: Ambience – 1 x win / 3 x place
Best Roughie: Princess Aria (No.13) @ $31 is great value in an even race. Best Roughie for the day
Race 3
Disposition (No.3) has been sooo close its last two starts and on class is the best horse here. The only concern is that he is back in distance and may be using this run as a tune up for the main race over 1600m next Saturday so not sure what to expect here. This is not his grand final.
Artlee (No.12) is a winner (6 from 10) and comes down from NSW after an impressive 1st up run over a shorter trip. A no name trainer & jockey will also mean that you will get a better price than maybe you should so is the safe each way go.
If leaders are being assisted, Charmed Harmony (No.7) will be right in this. In great form and from the wide grate will lead and take some serious catching. Rough hopes also to No’s 2,5,8,10 & 15
Selections: 12,3,10,7
Recommended Bet: Each Way Artless (No.12) @ $6.5 or better. We missed the $8… #d’oh
1 x win x 4 place Mr Utopia (No.10)
Best Roughie: Mr Utopia (No.10) had no luck last time and at $17 is worth an each way ticket
Race 4
Exosphere looks to be a freak but I won’t be leaping into the $1.40 price. He should win and win well. Counterattack (No.6) won well in Sydney last start and is on the up but shouldn’t threaten the favourite. Place hopes include No’s 3,4,7,10 & 11.
Selections: 1,6,11,4
Recommended Bet: Look on
Best Roughie: Hellbent (No.11) @ $4 or better for the place could be a bet for fun if you have to
Race 5
The Lexus is the last chance saloon for horses trying to get into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday so as regular readers will know, that I always recommend people to back whatever you like in this race in the Cup before this is run. Th reason being is that before the Lexus your horse may be $61 but after it wins, it will be as short as $15 so get the price while you can.
Excess Knowledge (No.3) has been improving with every run and looks as though he get the distance and big track that will suit. Will have no excuses here, Havana Cooler (No.6) was good in Sydney last start and looks set for a crack at this.Chance To Dance (No.5) finished behind the Cooler last start but 4th up should be ready to show his best
Huge X factor here is Elhaame (No.4). His 1st start in Australia from UK. Hard to line up the form but I imagine if they have flown it half way across the world, it wouldn’t be a dud. If there is money for it, get on board. Rough hopes to No’s 7,8,9 & 13
Selections: 6,4,3,5
Recommended Bet: Each Way Havana Cooler @ $5.50 or better but have have a saver bet on Elhaame (No.4)
Best Roughie: Chance to Dance (No.5) @ $11
Race 6
Upon first glance at this race I couldn’t believe that Happy Trails (No.2) was $10. Then I looked again and realised I wasn’t the only one thinking that as he had moved to $8. But even at that price, he is worth an each way ticket. Wasn’t suited by the leader bias in the Cox Plate and he won this race last year. A huge show in race with a dearth of WFA performers.
We risked Stratum Star (No.13) last time to our detriment as he is such a consistent performer and will be in this up to his neck. At around $5.5 he is just too short for me though.
Beware of an international X Factor Magic Artist (No.11) too. Who knows, he could be another German gun and smash ’em…
Other rough hopes include No’s 4,5 & 9
Selections: 2,7,5,13
Recommended Bet: Each Way – Happy Trails (No.2)
Best Roughie: Gailo Chop (No.7) was $21 for the Cox late last week and is $18 for this. That screams value for the Frenchman. Especially if a bit of rain comes along
Race 7
The Derby winner was tipped to you by Gamblor some 3 weeks ago in Tarzino (No.7). Hope you got the $9 that was on offer than because it ain’t around any more. As much as I like him I can’t have him at $2.50. I imagine he will drift which means there is some value to be had elsewhere.
If Lizard Island (No.1) was trained by Moody or Waterhouse it would half the price it is now. Has done everything right to date and the only questions left unanswered is whether he will get the trip but you can say that for all the horses here so has to be a chance.
Other hopes include Get The Picture (No.8) who gives every indication that the big track and extra distance will suit and Etymology (No.9) who looks a stayer who will plug away all day.
The X Factor here comes in the form of the WA visitor Kia Ora Koutou (No.3) who is unbeaten in 4 starts and looked impressive doing it. Huge step up in class here though so can’t have him at the $7…
Selections: 7,8,1,9
Recommended Bet: If Tarzino gets to $3.50, get on, otherwise maybe a quinella using No’s 1,6,7,8 & 9
Best Roughie: Extra Choice went from Dud to Stud last start after the application of blinkers. At $14, it’s worth a look
Race 8
This is a race for the ladies and there is one here I have had a bit of a crush on this spring, and as with must crushes I have on ladies, it’s cost me a fortune and got me nowhere. Abidewithme (No.9) has been running in A grade races with zero luck from crap barriers and I am hoping that this time from barrier 1 and Damien Oliver on board, the luck can turn around. With every drop of rain that falls, I get more and more confident as she loves a bit of sting out of the deck.. And at $13, we can have a strong each way go.
Royal Descent (No.1) is the class mare but she is backing up from a disaster of a run in the Caulfield Cup. She is stepping back in distance sharply so I’m not convinced. Seems like everyone else is though as she has been heavily backed. Her best wins this but…
Stay With me (No.15) is a filly up against the older girls but won the 1000 Guineas in good style. She is currently favourite but I am risking her and the 3yo’s have a bad record in this race and from the wide barrier, will need luck. Prepared to risk…..Watch it win by a mile now #kissofdeath
Other hopes include May’s Dream (No.3) who has been knocking on the door this campaign with breaking through and Slightly Sweet (No.13) who had no luck last time and the step up to 1600m and a bigger track will suit.
Selections: 9,13,3,4
Recommended Bet: Each Way On The Crush – Abidewithme (No.9)
Best Roughie: My top tip meets the criera
Race 9
By the last with this wild weather we are having who knows how the track will be playing so lets just go the obvious here with Delectation (No.6). 2nd behind the freak that is Chautauqua at this track and distance is good enough form for any race at the moment and should be here too. Knoydart (No.8) was a close 3rd in that race so has to be considered also although he meets Delectation worse at the weights
The big danger here is Dothraki (No.3) who won well 1st up in Sydney last start and has a great record 2nd up, a the trip and down the straight. A great each way option. We risked Under The Lourve (No.5) last start at the short price because we felt it a risk at 1400m and were vindicated….just. Back to 1200m here is more suitable.
If your a bit behind on the day coming up to this race (hard to imagine as I’m sure I’ve tipped every winner up to this stage), may I suggest a couple at value for your consideration. Fontelina (No.7) has changed stables and showed signs of a return to form when being Dothraki 1st up and this horse loves the straight. Could show up and if the rain really comes, Bring Me The Maid (No.12) will eat it up
Selections: 6,3,5,8
Recommended Bet: Each Way – Dothraki @ $8
Best Roughie: Knoydart (No.8) @ $11
Best Bets
Race 7 No 7 – Tarzino
Race 3 No 12 – Artlee
Best Each Way
Race 6 No 2 – Happy Trails
Race 8 No 9 – Abidewithme
Best Roughies
Race 2 No 15 – Princess Aria
Race 6 No 8 – Galio Chop
Race 3 No.10 – Mr Utopia
Quaddie (early): 1,2,4,15 / 2,3,5,7,10,12 / 1 / 3,4,5,6 – $9.20 for 10%
Quaddie: 2,5,7,13,15 / 7,8 / 3,4,9,13 / 3,6,7,8,13 – $20 for 10%
Yours In Punting!!!
GAMBLOR