Ah the Brownlow. The only race you can bet on after its been run. It doesn;t make it any easier though….well, a little. Let Gamblor make you some cash on the best event ever hosted on a Monday night.
The Contenders
Nat Fyfe @ $2
I have Fyfe on 28 votes to Round 14 and not getting another one for the rest of the year so while I think that should be enough for the win, it will be a nervous wait for favourite backers.
One thing I always look for in my Brownlow investing is that the player has a history of getting votes. There are some players that for whatever reason, just don’t attract the attention of the men in fluoro green, however, there are some that certainly do…
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) @ $11
Gamblor has Sam Mitchell down for 8 x 3 votes games. If that is right he will nearly win it, if not he will finish down the field as realistically there are only 10-11 games in which he will poll. But he is a proven vote getter and has had a ripping year in a top side.
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide) @ $8
Somehow finished in the Top 5 last year and I would argue he has been better this year. If he is on 10+ at 1/2 way, get on as he will fly home.
Best Roughie
David Mundy @ $51 (Top 5 @ $4.75)
While I understand that he has a highly fancied team mate, here me out. If Mundy can knick some of those early Fyfe votes in the 1st 6 rounds, he will have a chance as I have him getting 5 maybe 6 BOG’s in the last 9 rounds…
Robbie Grey @ $101 (Top 10 @ $3.25)
Grey should have polled more in 2014 and umps have a history of over-correcting when they get a player wrong. Add to that Grey has had more time in the mid field and won’t have many taking votes off him (Boak mainly and a little Wingard/Wines). Look he probably won’t win it (hence the 100/1) but he will go better than most expect. Wouldn’t surprise if he got 20+
All Australian Selectors Nightmare
Josh P Kennedy (Sydney) @ $17
Last year Matt Priddis won the Brownlow but wasn’t good enough to make the 22 and Josh Kennedy (Syd) is looking to make the selectors look like morons for 2 consecutive years. For this reason if nothing else, I will be barracking for JPK.
Lay Of The Day
Matthew Priddis @ $4.50
While we made a motza off this guy last year, at the price he is no value in 2015. Yes, he has had another ripper year and WCE have won more games which means more Eagles votes…..BUT..he has more people taking votes off him this year. Gaff in particular should poll well (15+) but also Nic Nat & Josh Kennedy will eat into his total. Reckon you will need a min. of 25 votes to win this year and I don’t have him getting more than 22.
Club by Club
Below, Gamblor has broken down your club and who will poll best for them and the total amount of votes your team should get
Adelaide (Total Team Votes – 71)
Pretty confident this trifecta will finish in order
1st – Dangerfield
2nd – S Thompson
3rd – S Jacobs
Brisbane (Total Team Votes – 28)
Low win teams are always the trickiest to work out. Nothing of interest here from a betting perspective.
1st – D Beams
2nd – S Martin
3rd – M Robinson
Carlton (Total Team Votes – 28)
Murphy @ $1.35 is a solid multi builder
1st – M Murphy
2nd – P Cripps
3rd – T Bell
Collingwood (Total Team Votes – 63)
Swan @ $4 is value as him and Pendles will be closer than most think.. Sidebottom & Adams will battle out 3rd
1st – S Pendlebury
2nd – D Swan
3rd – S Sidebottom
Essendon (Total Team Votes – 40)
Hurley at $4 is a great price for the year he’s had but Heppell does attract votes…
1st – D Heppell / M Hurley
3rd – J Daniher
Fremantle (Total Team Votes – 95)
This trifecta is a lock!!!!
1st – N Fyfe
2nd – D Mundy
3rd – L Neale
Gold Coast (Total Team Votes – 33)
Easily the toughest team to work out. T Lynch will get at least 6 for sure but will that be enough…
1st – H Bennell
2nd – T Lynch
3rd – C Dixon
Geelong (Total Team Votes – 66)
Motlop is great value @ $4.50 although he is up against a proven vote getter in Joel Selwood. Anyone could finish 3rd
1st – S Motlop
2nd – J Selwood
3rd – M Blicavs
GWS (Total Team Votes – 63)
The forgotten man Dylan Shiel gets off to a flyer and it may be enough to hang on. Cameron is the only one who can catch him.
1st – D Shiel
2nd – J Cameron
3rd – C Ward
Hawthorn (Total Team Votes – 96)
You can lock in the quinella although is Bruce McAveney was an umpire, Cyril would beat them all
1st – S Mitchell
2nd – L Hodge
3rd – C Rioli
Melbourne (Total Team Votes – 55)
This will come down to round 23. I’m backing Bernie to get the 3 and the win
1st – B Vince
2nd – N Jones
3rd – J Hogan
North Melbourne (Total Team Votes – 72)
As always, an even bunch (Goldstein aside of course)
1st – T Goldstein
2nd – J Ziebell
3rd – S Higgins
Port Adelaide (Total Team Votes – 74)
Umpires messed up with Grey last year and will make up for it this year. Expect him to go better than expected this year
1st – R Grey
2nd – T Boak
3rd – C Wingard
Richmond (Total Team Votes – 92)
Cotchin is a perennial vote getter but Lids had a massive 2nd half of the year ans should nab Cotch with 6 votes in the last 2 rounds.
1st – B Delidio
2nd – T Cotchin
3rd – D Martin
St Kilda (Total Team Votes – 40)
I have Armitage getting at least 16 votes which means he could be a good Top 10 overall finish bet
1st – D Armitage
2nd – J Steven
3rd – J Bruce
Sydney (Total Team Votes – 90 )
Expecting JPK & Hanners to cost each other a chance of winning Charlie but may both finish in the top 5. JPK is the better price so will be investing on him
1st – D Hannebury / J Kennedy
3rd – T Mitchell
WCE (Total Team Votes – 98)
Proven vote getter Priddis will win this but will be interested to see how Gaff polls.
1st – M Priddis
2nd – A Gaff
3rd – J Kennedy
Western Bulldogs (Total Team Votes – 75 )
Wallis’ big finish to the year should see him pass the Bont late.
1st – M Wallis
2nd – M Bontempelli
3rd – J Stringer
Recommended Bets
Sam Mitchell @ $11 (Each Way)
Matt Priddis < 24.5 votes @ $1.85
David Mundy > 20.5 votes @ $2
Robbie Grey > 15.5 @ $1.85
Tom Scully to get a vote @ $1.90
Round 5 leader (w/o Fyfe) – D.Shiel @ $4.25
YOURS IN PUNTING
GAMBLOR