This is without doubt Gamblor’s favourite weekend of the footy year to punt. Everyone is talking down the top 4 teams that lost (Hawthorn & Sydney) wondering if that 1 solitary loss declares the end of an era. Never to be seen again…. Meanwhile the elimination winners (Adelaide & Nth Melbourne) are suddenly flag contenders and “experts” can’t see how anyone can beat them after them winning ONE GAME against similarly talented opposition.
PLEASE!!!!!! This is the exact situation where Gamblor takes advantage of suckers like that and cleans up. The record (last year aside) of teams backing up from the elimination finals to win again the next week over the last 8 years is about 2 in 16. In one game Gamblor is certainly happy to follow that data, but the other he is not so sure..
Friday September 18 @ 7.50pm EST
Hawthorn vs Adelaide
MCG
Who Will Win:
Hawthorn by 37 points
Why :
When was the last time Hawthorn lost two in a row and Adelaide I would argue are lucky to be here and won’t get the space afforded to them last week.
BET OF THE YEAR
Hawthorn by > 15 pts @ $1.58 (The more you bet the more you win)
Recommended Bet
As above
Hawthorn < 39.5 @ $2.25
Hawthorn > 39.5 @ $2.60
Back them both you will end up with more money than you started with..
Value Bet
Hawthorn by 60+ @ $3.45
Hawks seeking revenge. This could get ugly…but the last game I said that about was Rich to smash Nth 
Novelty Betts (see what I did there…)
Eddie Betts to get < 10 possessions @ $4.15
Eddie Betts to kick 0-1 goals @ $3.35
No open fwd 50 for Eddie to gallop in this week. Betts has traditionally found the going tough against A Grade opposition and this will be no exception. Only junk time can kill this investment…
Confidence Level:
8.5/10
Saturday September 19 @ 7.20pm EST
Sydney vs Nth Melbourne
ANZ Stadium
Who Will Win:
North by 11 points
Why :
I backing my gut instinct here that Sydney went to Perth knowing that the only way they were going to win a flag in 2015 was to beat the Dockers last week to obtain the week off and a home prelim….and lost. Add to that, the key players missing and I fear they are there for the taking. Kangas you could argue should have smashed Richmond if they had of kicked straight and have a fresh list to choose from. The Roos will never get a better chance to extract revenge for their embarrassing “effort” 12 months ago at the ground against this team. But who can trust North???? I think you are feeling that I am not as confident here
Recommended Bet
North Melbourne at the line (+11.5) @ $1.91
Either team by < 15.5 points @ $2.75
Value Bet
North by 1-39 points is $2.95 while North H2H is $2.40. Surely if North win in Sydney against the Swans in damp conditions, it’s not by 40+ so $2.95 seems the right price if you like the Kangas
Best Roughie / Worth The Waite (again….that is twice now I’ve done that…)
Total Score 161-170 points @ $6.00
Jarrad Waite to take 4 or less marks @ $2.15
Jarrad Waite to kick 0-1 goals @ $3.00
Confidence Level:
4/10 (How can you be confident when you betting on a team as flakey as Nth and against solid citizens like Sydney)
GAMBLOR AT THE RACES
Spring is heating up and Gamblor has had the chance to take a close look at both Caulfield & Randwick on Saturday.
CAULFIELD
R1: 2,5,3,6
Comments: Any of the above 4 horses could win this. There will be a few horses to follow out of this so will pay to follow
Bets: Pick any one of the 4 if you must but I’ll be watching on
R2: 6,5,4,3
Comments: In what is an ordinary race, Moonovermanhatten (No.6) is a youngster on the rise. No luck 1st up and back to the home track. Could lead all the way at odds.
Bets: No.6 (1 x win / 3 place) @ $6
R3: 11,9,12,1
Comments: Kapset (No.11) and Corum (No.12) finished 2nd & 3rd last start in a good form race last start but reckon Kapset from the barrier will be more forward in the run and take stopping. If it doesn’t win, there are a host of chances here..
Bets: No.11 a small win bet @ $4.60. Tricky race
R4: 5,8,1,4
Comments: The form through Sardaaj (No5) looks amazing and if she is at her best, she wins well. The only threat could be No.8 2nd up but pretty keen to unload here
Bets: Strong win bet No.5 @ $3.
R5: 3,11,2,10
Comments: Tipping Don’t Doubt Mamma but don;t back her if she gets too short (< $4 seems poisonous to me) but sh eis the obvious one here. She will need luck as she gets back but her sprint is awesome. Sacred Eye (No.11) may get out to a silly price and if so, I will be betting
Bets: No.3 – Win bet @ $4 or better or No.11 Win bet @ $5 or better
R6: 5,9,13,12,3
Comments: Fell Swoop (No.5) has been good to Gamblor of late and he sees no reason to drop off here. A couple of the above roughies have a shot if my top tip doesn’t do his best
Bets: No.5 – Win Bet @ $3 Small 1 win x 4 place bets on No’s 3 & 12 at massive odds
R7: 7,10,2,5
Comments: Best Each Way Bet in Australia on Saturday is Tycoon Tara (No.7). Will lead and take some serious catching and while Gamblor may have taken all the $11, there still will be each way odds available
Bets: No.7 – Strong Each Way @ any price you can get
R8: 15,3,17,1
Comments: Magnapal (No.15) is in career best form and again will lead and take some stopping. Preapred to risk the favourite (No.17) will run well but can’t see it winning. No.1 is a massive x factor. It;s best wins this easily
Bets: No.15 – Small Each Way @ $6.5
Lay: No.17 @ $4 or less
R9: 17,8,9,14
Comments: A dead set lottery to end with here so look for value.
Bets: Not unless I have to
Lay: No.14 @ $4.5 is way too short
BEST BETS – CAULFIELD
Race 4 No.5 Sardaaj
Race 6 No.5 Fell Swoop
BEST EACH WAY – CAULFIELD
Race 7 No 7 Tycoon Tara
Race 8 No 15 Magnapal
BEST ROUGHIE – CAULFIELD
Race 9 No 8 Trazino @ $16 or 17 Assertive Star @ $16 (if it gets a run)
YOURS IN PUNTING
GAMBLOR!!!!!!!!!